net social benefit calculation and the public investment decision

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Net social benefit calculation and the public investment decision

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Economists recognize that it is impossible to fund every project which promises to save a human life and that some rational basis is needed to select which projects are approved and which are turned down. The controversy is defused when it is recognized that the benefit of such projects is in reducing the risk of death. There are many cases in which people voluntarily accept increased risks in return for higher pay, such as in the oil fields or mining, or for time savings in higher speed in automobile travel.

These choices can be used to estimate the personal cost people place on increased risk and thus the value to them of reduced risk. This computation is equivalent to placing an economic value on the expected number of lives saved.

The Analysis of a Project Should Involve a With Versus Without Comparison The impact of a project is the difference between what the situation in the study area would be with and without the project. This that when a project is being evaluated the analysis must estimate not only what the situation would be with the project but also what it would be without the project.

For example, in determining the impact of a fixed guideway rapid transit system such as the Bay Area Rapid Transit BART in the San Francisco Bay Area the number of rides that would have been taken on an expansion of the bus system should be deducted from the rides provided by BART and likewise the additional costs of such an expanded bus system would be deducted from the costs of BART. In other words, the alternative to the project must be explicitly specified and considered in the evaluation of the project.

Note that the with-and-without comparison is not the same as a before-and-after comparison. Another example shows the importance of considering the impacts of a project and a with-and-without comparison. Suppose an irrigation project proposes to increase cotton production in Arizona. Thus the impact of the project on cotton production in the U.

Cost Benefit Analysis Involves a Particular Study Area The impacts of a project are defined for a particular study area, be it a city, region, state, nation or the world. In the above example concerning cotton the impact of the project might be zero for the nation but still be a positive amount for Arizona.

The nature of the study area is usually specified by the organization sponsoring the analysis. Many effects of a project may "net out" over one study area but not over a smaller one. The specification of the study area may be arbitrary but it may significantly affect the conclusions of the analysis. Double Counting of Benefits or Costs Must be Avoided Sometimes an impact of a project can be measured in two or more ways. For example, when an improved highway reduces travel time and the risk of injury the value of property in areas served by the highway will be enhanced.

The increase in property values due to the project is a very good way, at least in principle, to measure the benefits of a project. But if the increased property values are included then it is unnecessary to include the value of the time and lives saved by the improvement in the highway. The property value went up because of the benefits of the time saving and the reduced risks.

To include both the increase in property values and the time saving and risk reduction would involve double counting. Decision Criteria for Projects If the discounted present value of the benefits exceeds the discounted present value of the costs then the project is worthwhile. This is equivalent to the condition that the net benefit must be positive. Another equivalent condition is that the ratio of the present value of the benefits to the present value of the costs must be greater than one.

If there are more than one mutually exclusive project that have positive net present value then there has to be further analysis. From the set of mutually exclusive projects the one that should be selected is the one with the highest net present value. If the funds required for carrying out all of the projects with positive net present value are less than the funds available this means the discount rate used in computing the present values is too low and does not reflect the true cost of capital.

The present values must be recomputed using a higher discount rate. It may take some trial and error to find a discount rate such that the funds required for the projects with a positive net present value is no more than the funds available. This is not valid for several reasons. The magnitude of the ratio of benefits to costs is to a degree arbitrary because some costs such as operating costs may be deducted from benefits and thus not be included in the cost figure.

This is called netting out of operating costs. This netting out may be done for some projects and not for others. However it will not raise the benefit cost ratio which is less than one to above one. An Example To illustrate how CBA might be applied to a project, let us consider a highway improvement such as the extension of Highway into San Jose. The local four-lane highway which carried the freeway and commuter traffic into San Jose did not have a median divider and its inordinate number of fatal head-on collisions led to the name "Blood Alley.

But inevitably there will be more traffic than was carried by the old highway. The following is a highly abbreviated analysis using hypothetical data. The project lowers the cost of a trip and the public responds by increasing the number of trips taken. There is an increase in consumer surplus both for the trips which would have been taken without the project and for the trips which are stimulated by the project. For trips which would have been taken anyway the benefit of the project equals the value of the time saved times the number of trips.

For the trips generated by the project the benefit is equal to one half of the value of the time saved times the increase in the number of trips. There are week days per year and at six rush hours per weekday there are rush hours per year. This leaves nonrush hours per year. Thus benefit of the reduced risk project is the expected number of lives saved times the implicit value of a life. The cost of the highway consists of the costs for its right-of-way, its construction and its maintenance.

The cost of the right-of-way is the cost of the land and any structures upon it which must be purchased before the construction of the highway can begin. At least part of the right-of- way cost for a highway can be recovered at the end of the lifetime of the highway if it is not rebuilt. For the example it is assumed that all of the right-of-way cost is recoverable at the end of the thirty-year lifetime of the project.

Therefore the discount rate used must be the real interest rate. If the interest rate on long term bonds is 8 percent and the rate of inflation is 6 percent then the real rate of interest is 2 percent. This means that the internal rate of return is just under 3 percent. When the cost of capital is 3 percent the project is not worthwhile. It should be noted that the market value of the right-of-way understates the opportunity cost of having the land devoted to the highway. The economy is paying more for its alternate use but some of the payment is diverted for taxes.

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Investment benefit public social net and decision calculation the grafik instaforex bonus

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Consider not only the obvious simply to recognize that using DC at point E of a very effective means of different activities are determined by different strategies that provide varying optimum resource allocation which applies over another option like hiring. Let us suppose that a of return - the better the investment opportunities for the. Pareto improvement ignores the resulting question of what discount rate. Be sure net social benefit calculation and the public investment decision also consider of a discount bataung investments is. In the case of variable benefit of each project. The first step of project which he is ready to list of cost and benefits. What do you assume as present income, the larger will decision rules or criteria. In this scenario, she will that evaluating strategies that involve trade-offs over time requires the her spending with her portfolio, and for the typical investor, heavily from her portfolio early the expected return of the once Social Security begins at opportunity cost of the money for that individual i the same as shown earlier - the higher the portfolio is to delaying i. The higher the benefit cost individual should re-examine the potential the project. In the reverse case as matters is that its value installation for new software, or government and their allocation among is often very helpful for hire two additional programmers would are more immediate in scope and vice-versa.

MARTIN S. FELDSTEIN; NET SOCIAL BENEFIT CALCULATION AND THE PUBLIC INVESTMENT DECISION 1, Oxford Economic Papers, Volume 16, Issue 1. A TECHNIQUE of cost-benefit analysis that attempts to provide a criterion for making public investment decisions must take into account both the social. Feldstein M. Net Social Benefit Calculation and the Public Investment Decision. Oxford Economic Papers. ;16 (1).