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In the event of weaker operating performance or cash flow, Fitch expects CAT would prioritize a strong balance sheet until conditions improve. The amount of a resolution is uncertain and the process could be lengthy, which would allow CAT to generate cash flow to help fund any payments. Concerns also include potential support required for Financial Products if credit quality declines or access to funding deteriorates.
A focus by Financial Products on captive business reduces residual value risk related to machinery and equipment sales. The calculation considers asset quality at CAT's Financial Products business as well as liquidity and funding that incorporate support from CAT in the form of funding agreements. Fitch assumes CAT will make an equity injection to Financial Products to bring leverage to the target level, with the equity injection funded by excess cash or debt. Beyond these support-driven considerations, Fitch also considers CFSC's relatively consistent operating performance, sufficient liquidity and solid asset quality, which are counterbalanced by elevated leverage levels, relative to standalone finance companies but consistent with similarly rated captive finance peers, as well as its reliance on wholesale funding sources.
Asset quality metrics improved in , with receivables past due greater than 30 days as a percentage of total finance receivables declining 40 bps from , to 3. However, net write-offs as a percentage of average finance receivables increased by 10 bps to 0. The loss allowance to net write-off ratio has declined to 1.
Fitch expects some asset quality deterioration as a result of coronavirus. As a point of reference, CFSC's delinquencies of 30 days or more amounted to 5. Fitch-calculated pre-tax return on average assets were 1. Fitch expects CFSC's operating metrics to weaken in the near term given slower loan and lease growth and a likely increase in provision expense caused by the current economic disruption.
Still, operating performance would be expected to improve over time on the same path as economic recovery. Fitch-calculated debt to tangible equity declined to 9. Fitch expects CFSC to manage leverage within the long-term average of 9. Fitch believes the company's leverage is relatively high compared to standalone finance and leasing companies while CFSC's leverage remains consistent with other captive finance peers.
Should funding requirements increase, Fitch believes CAT would inject additional capital into the finance arm as necessary to manage CFSC's overall leverage profile consistent with its historical average. CFSC relies on the global debt capital markets and various bank funding programs to provide liquidity for its operations, as well as support from CAT. The company's ability to consistently access the global capital markets historically demonstrates the strength of CAT's brand and franchise.
Fitch believes CFSC's comprehensive funding platform, in combination with the financial strength of its parent, is consistent with other captive finance companies. The ratings of the subsidiaries reflect the unconditional and irrevocable guarantee provided by CFSC for full repayment of obligations under the subsidiaries' various borrowing facilities.
The guarantee is viewed as the strongest form of parental support, which Fitch believes enhances the rating linkages between CFSC and its subsidiaries. The unsecured debt rating is equalized with the Long-Term IDR, reflecting the firm's unsecured funding profile and average recovery prospects for unsecured creditors under a stressed scenario.
CAT is well situated to compete against other machine manufacturers, reflecting its position as a leading global provider of industrial equipment. The company has a mix of competitors that vary by product line across construction, mining and power equipment markets including Hitachi, Komatsu, CNH Industrial N. CAT's dealer network and captive finance business are among the largest and best funded within its peer group.
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