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An investmentfonds wikipedia free fund also index tracker is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund ETF designed to follow certain preset rules so that the fund can track a specified basket johann pfeiffer iforex underlying investments. Index funds may also have rules that screen for social and sustainable criteria. An index fund's rules of construction clearly identify the type of companies suitable for the fund. Additional index funds within these geographic markets may include indexes of companies that include rules based on company characteristics or factors, such as companies that are small, mid-sized, large, small value, large value, small growth, large growth, the level of gross profitability or investment capital, real estate, or indexes based on commodities and fixed-income. Companies are purchased and held within the index fund when they meet the specific index rules or parameters and are sold when they move outside of those rules or parameters. Think of an index fund as an investment utilizing rules-based investing.

Notowania walut on line forex mt4 commission

Notowania walut on line forex

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Wszystko Analizy Bitcoin Kursy News. Bitcoin w r. Ile potrwa hossa na Bitcoinie? Forex od TradingView. Kursy walut: euro, frank, dolar, funt 23 listopada Notowania dolara nadal przy 3,76 PLN. Mieszane nastroje na euro, franku i funcie 23 listopada r.

Co dalej z PLN? Notowania gazu ziemnego nadal pod oporem. Czy rynek wygeneruje dalszy spadek? Ile kosztuje euro, funt i frank? Kurs funta 0,5 proc. Co dalej z notowaniami PLN? In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion.

Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time x-axis and price y-axis. The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.

Markets ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process.

Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time.

Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand.

We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend as the contrarian trading in this sub often does. Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend.

When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The market is technically open hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert.

Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things. The major problem with volume is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis.

At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes because of levels of fear. Allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend.

However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX. As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend is imminent. Trend Definition Analysis — Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated.

Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes.

Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to.

An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom.

A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards uptrend or a line from three bottoms going downwards downtrend. It is not possible to correctly draw an uptrend line on the SPY chart, but it is possible to correctly draw a downtrend — indicating that the overall trend is downwards. Time Symmetry Now that we have determined that the overall trend is downwards, the next issue is the question of when SPY will bottom out.

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge.

Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others.

It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled.

In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points.

They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite.

The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will complete our analysis of time by measuring it in intervals of bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point.

However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range.

Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram — A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series.

Following the same methodology, we get the third and tenth days of the month as the likeliest days. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the end of the month has replaced the average of the tenth. Therefore, we have four primary dates for our histogram. How do we narrow this group down with any accuracy? The 8. However, we can time-shift to other peaks and troughs to determine a date for this year.

The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, for the end of the bear market - roughly speaking. As we move forward in time, our predictions may be less accurate. I have also assumed that the audience believes in these models, which is not necessary. Anyone with free time may construct histograms and view these time models, determining for themselves what is accurate and what is not.

Hey, I hope you're doing well. Forex market gives you all sorts of emotion at the start. You'll learn to not feel anything in your journey. The reason I wrote the post is to give some tips, see I started not too long ago and found out some tips that would have saved me from blowing my account. Trade the trends. Also don't forget to calculate the price per pip. Most heavy movers are not there so the market tend to have very high spreads. This will eat you up unless you know what you're doing and your stop loss is very strong.

Don't chase it. I know this feeling man, it sucks. But you have to accept the error and learn from it. Trade when everything is in your favor. Protect your wins at all costs. Sometimes it's better not to trade. You do not have to trade daily, while the idea of making money everyday sounds cool realistically some days you will be sitting in front of screen planning your next trade. It works sometime but you are giving yourself a huge risk.

And your stop loss will likely hit, basically wasting good money. Currencies are correalated with one another, check the health of the trend if it starts slowing down you might want to take your profits. You will learn and be successful how you want. Don't rush, don't over trade. That's all that I can think of. Personally, I have blown 2 live accounts with thousands in it. Right now I am seeing profits consistently, but it wasn't easy.

It's hard to win back your losses, so cut them off when you can. And don't hold on to them! Never put your hard earned money hoping for someone else to move the trend. Ride the trend, respect it and enjoy your winnings. I hope this helps you out, from the bottom of my heart. To my senior traders, please feel free to give me further advice.

I am always looking to learn and improve. Good luck and stay safe! They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar USD so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever.

They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.

The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.

Stock Market Crash The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically.

However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value — similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not.

Traditional stock markets are composed of indices pl. Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high.

When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much?

Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank — the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values.

As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth.

When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business — resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds.

The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system.

Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction.

It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework.

That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not — inherent value. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms.

Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time.

Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it — the data on the blockchain is permanent.

The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle.

The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,, minutes approximately four years if , blocks were mined.

If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year On the twelfth of May, , the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price.

In this, BTC is similar to gold. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol — which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week. Trading or Investing? For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect.

In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges.

Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall.

According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert.

Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term. Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC.

Volume — derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes peaks and troughs because of levels of fear.

Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.

Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached. RSI Relative Strength Index : The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes — either under 30 or over Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations.

Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend — indicating that the overall trend is downwards.

The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash. We will measure it in intervals of bars. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year.

Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!

Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts.

The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, for the end of this bear market — roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator.

If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks.

However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Hi guys, I'm a newbie intro forex trading. Currently, I'm studying the technical analysis of forex however I'm quite confused with regards to ATR calculation. As far as I know, ATR is the averages of the true range be it in the day chart or minute chart. But according to picture below, what do they mean by high minus close, current low minus prev close?

Can anyone care to explain to me.. Howdy all, I work professionally for a proprietary trading fund, and have worked for quite a few in my time, hope I can offer some insights on trading etc you guys might have. Bonus for you guys Here are the columns in my trading journal and various explanations where appropriate: Trade Number — Simply is this the first trade of the year? The 10th?

I count a trade that you opened and closed just one trade number. For example if you buy EUUSD today and sell it 50 pips later in the day and close out the trade, then that is just one trade for recording purposes. I do not create a second trade number to describe the exit. Both the entry and exit are under the same trade number. If you are trading a stock, put in the ticker symbol. This is a personal preference. I like to use the lingo where possible. Some people can enter a trade using a combination of market and limit orders.

If you bought 5 gold futures contracts, then write in 5 contracts. If you bought 1, shares of stock, then write in 1, shares. If you entered at multiple prices, then you can either write in all the different fills you got, or specify the average price received. For example January 23, Entry Time — Time that you opened the position. If it is multiple positions, then you can specify each time for each various fill, or you can specify the time range.

If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread. If you are trading a currency pair, then you write in the pips. If you are trading a stock, then write in how many cents or dollars your stop is away from your entry price. If you risked 0. You write in what the potential reward risk ratio of the trade is.

If you are trading using a pip stop and you expect that the market can reasonably move pips, then you can write in Of course this is an interesting column because you can look at it after the trade is finished and see how close you were or how far removed from reality your initial projections were. You write in what you believe the potential win rate of this trade is.

If you were to place this trade 10 times in a row, how many times do you think you would win? I write it in as percentage terms. I use the word inefficiency here. I believe it is important to think of trading setups as inefficiencies. If you think in terms of inefficiencies, then you will think in terms of the market being mispriced, then you will think about the reasons why the market is mispriced and why such market expectations for example are out of alignment with reality.

In this category I could write in different types of trades such as fading the stops, different types of news trades, expecting stops to get tripped, betting on sentiment intensifying, betting on sentiment reversing, etc.

I do not write in all the reasons why I took the trade in this column. I do that in another column. This column is just to broadly define what type of inefficiency you are looking to capture. However, if you are a chartist or price action trader, then you may want to include what chart time frame you found whatever pattern you were looking at. If the trade lasts less than an hour, I will usually write in the duration in minutes.

Anything in between 1 and 48 hours, I write in the hours amount. Anything past that and I write it as days or weeks as appropriate, etc. Pips the trade went against you before turning into a winner — If you have a trade that suffered a draw down, but did not stop you out and eventually was a winner, then you write it how many pips the trade went against you before it turned into a profitable trade.

The reason you have this column is to compare it to your stop loss size and see any patterns that emerge. If you notice that a lot of your winning trades suffer a big draw down and get near your stop loss points but turn out to be a profitable trade, then you can further refine your entry strategy to get in a better price. In other words you lost 2 pips as slippage. This is important for a few different reasons. Firstly, you want to see if the places you put your stop at suffer from slippage.

If they do, perhaps you can get better stop loss placement, or use it as useful information to find new inefficiencies. Secondly, you want to see how much slippage your broker is giving you. If you are trading the same system with different brokers, then you can record the slippage from each one and see which has the lowest slippage so you can choose them.

I color code the box background to green for profit and red for loss. If a trade lost 0. If a trade went for a loss that is equal to or less than what you risked, then I do not write in anything. If the loss is greater than the amount you risked, then I do write it in this column. For example lets say you risk 0. In very general terms I describe it. I was fighting the macro order flow and it was dumb.

Or if I notice a string of losers and see that I tried to buy a breakout and it failed five times in a row, but notice that the market continued to go higher after I was stopped out, then I realize that I was correct in the move, but I just applied the wrong entry strategy. I should have bought a retracement, instead of trying to buy a fresh breakout.

For example if you are dead tired and place a trade, then write in that you were very tired. Or if you place a trade when there were five people coming and out of your trading office or room in your house, then write that in. If you placed the trade when the fire alarm was going off then write that in. Or if you place a trade without having done your daily habits, then write that in.

Whatever you believe was a possible weakness that threw you off your game. If you had complete peace and quiet, write that in. If you completed all your daily habits, then write that in. Whatever you believe was a possible strength during the day.

Do a lot of your losing streaks happen when you have on a lot of open positions at the same time? Do you have a winning streak when the number of open positions is kept low? Or can you handle a lot of open positions at the same time?

If you have a forex broker that is commission free and only gets compensated through the spread, then you do not need this column. Or if you bought a stock and got a dividend then write that in. Or if you shorted a stock and you had to pay a dividend, then write that in.

Write out your thinking. Instead of writing a paragraph or two describing my thinking behind the trade, I condense the reasons down into bullet points. It can be anywhere from bullet points. Again, instead of writing out a paragraph or two, I condense it down into bullet points. I do this during the day the trade closed as a profit or loss. This is important because after you have a winning or losing trade, you will not always know the true reasons why it happened.

You have your immediate theories and reasons which you include in the previous column. However, there are times when after several days, weeks, or months, you find the true reason and proper market belief about why your trade succeeded or failed. I am not saying that I am thinking about trades I placed ten months ago.

I try to forget about them and focus on the present moment. However, there will be trades where you have these nagging questions about they failed or succeeded and you will only discover those reasons several days, weeks, or months later. When you discover the reasons, you write them in this column. Summary In the previous article, we explained the premise of realizing the trading strategy from the aspects of the introduction of the M language , the basic grammar, the model execution method, and the model classification.

In this article, we will continue the previous part, from the commonly used strategy modules and technologies. Indicators, step by step to help you achieve a viable intraday quantitative trading strategy. New high price The new high price is calculated by whether the current K line is greater than N cycles' highest price. Price raise with massive trading volume increase For example: If the current K line's closing price is 1. Price narrow-shock market Narrow-shock market means that the price is maintained within a certain range in the recent period.

For example: If the highest price in 10 cycles minus the lowest price in 10 cycles, the result divided by the current K-line's closing price is less than 0. Price gap jumping The price gap is the case where the highest and lowest prices of the two K lines are not connected. It consists of two K lines, and the price gap is the reference price of the support and pressure points in the future price movement. When a price gap occurs, it can be assumed that an acceleration along the trend with original direction has begun.

The moving average system is a common technical tool used by most analysts. From a technical point of view, it is a factor that affects the psychological price of technical analysts. The decision-making factor of thinking trading is a good reference tool for technical analysts. The middle rail is calculated according to the N-day moving average, and the upper and lower rails are calculated according to the standard deviation.

When the BOLL channel starts changing from wide to narrow, which means the price will gradually returns to the mean. When the BOLL channel is changing from narrow to wide, it means that the market will start to change. If the price is up cross the upper rail, it means that the buying power is enhanced. If the price down cross the lower rail, it indicates that the selling power is enhanced.

Among all the technical indicators, Bollinger Bands calculation method is one of the most complicated, which introduces the concept of standard deviation in statistics, involving the middle trajectory MB , the upper trajectory UP and the lower trajectory DN. The MACD developed according to the principle of moving averages removes the defect that the moving average frequently emits false signals, and also retains the effect of the other good aspect.

Therefore, the MACD indicator has the trend and stability of the moving average. It was used to study the timing of buying and selling stocks and predicts stock price change. The above is the commonly used strategy module in the development of quantitative trading strategies. In addition, there are far more than that. Through the above module examples, you can also implement several trading modules that you use most frequently in subjective trading.

The methods are the same. Next, we began to write a viable intraday trading strategy. Through several commonly used strategy module cases, we had a general idea of the FMZ Quant programming tools, it can be said that learning to write strategy modules and improve programming logic thinking is a key step in advanced quantitative trading. Finally, we used the FMZ Quant tool to implement the trading strategy according a classical Forex trading strategy.

Next section notice Maybe there are still some confusion for some people, mainly because of the coding part. Don't worry, we have already thought of that for you. On the FMZ Quant platform, there is another even easier programming tool for beginners. It is the visual programming, let's learn it soon! What Is Capitalism? Capitalism is an economic system in which private individuals or businesses own capital goods.

The production of goods and services is based on supply and demand in the general market—known as a market economy —rather than through central planning—known as a planned economy or command economy. The purest form of capitalism is free market or laissez-faire capitalism. Here, private individuals are unrestrained. They may determine where to invest, what to produce or sell, and at which prices to exchange goods and services.

The laissez-faire marketplace operates without checks or controls. Today, most countries practice a mixed capitalist system that includes some degree of government regulation of business and ownership of select industries. Instead of planning economic decisions through centralized political methods, as with socialism or feudalism, economic planning under capitalism occurs via decentralized and voluntary decisions.

Capitalism depends on the enforcement of private property rights, which provide incentives for investment in and productive use of productive capital. Capitalism developed historically out of previous systems of feudalism and mercantilism in Europe, and dramatically expanded industrialization and the large-scale availability of mass-market consumer goods. Pure capitalism can be contrasted with pure socialism where all means of production are collective or state-owned and mixed economies which lie on a continuum between pure capitalism and pure socialism.

Capitalism and Private Property Private property rights are fundamental to capitalism. Most modern concepts of private property stem from John Locke's theory of homesteading, in which human beings claim ownership through mixing their labor with unclaimed resources. Once owned, the only legitimate means of transferring property are through voluntary exchange, gifts, inheritance , or re-homesteading of abandoned property.

Private property promotes efficiency by giving the owner of resources an incentive to maximize the value of their property. So, the more valuable the resource is, the more trading power it provides the owner. In a capitalist system, the person who owns the property is entitled to any value associated with that property.

For individuals or businesses to deploy their capital goods confidently, a system must exist that protects their legal right to own or transfer private property.

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Forex od TradingView. Kursy walut: euro, frank, dolar, funt 23 listopada Notowania dolara nadal przy 3,76 PLN. Mieszane nastroje na euro, franku i funcie 23 listopada r. Co dalej z PLN? Notowania gazu ziemnego nadal pod oporem. Czy rynek wygeneruje dalszy spadek? Ile kosztuje euro, funt i frank? Kurs funta 0,5 proc. Co dalej z notowaniami PLN? Close Privacy Overview This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website.

Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. Genuinely really appreciated. If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I.

You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. Part II Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns Letting stops breathe We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.

For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that.

If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches. This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions.

It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size. There are advantages and disadvantages to both.

Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch see above chart. Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. Remember - losers average losers. There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions.

Another is event risk. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour say up if you are long the stop loss ratchets with it. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with.

It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Wait it out. Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. If it hits a previous high of 1. The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.

Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this. Entering positions with limit orders That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?

Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Imagine the price is 1. You might wish to leave a bid around 1. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in. So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.

Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1. There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of , As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level.

Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Here we add , when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of , when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct. Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

This is why risk management is so important! If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below. That is, if you are prepared to risk pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you pips. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit.

Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region. Risk-adjusted returns Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders.

Not bad! The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility. Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose?

Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps. A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance.

One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return. This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms EAs that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return.

Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor. Sharpe ratio The Sharpe ratio works like this: It takes the average returns of your strategy; It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.

As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0. Above 1 is excellent. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in. It stands for Value at Risk. It might spit out a number of This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.

Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.

Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer. When I first started trading, I used to add all indicators on my chart.

My chart was pretty messy. I understood nothing and my analysis was pretty much just a gamble. Nothing worked. Then I learned price action trading. And things started to change. It seemed difficult and unreliable at first. There's a saying in my country. That holds true in the market. Amos Every indicator you see is based on price. MACD uses price. Price is what matters the most. Everything depends on the price, and then the indicators send a signal. Price Action trading is trading based on Candlestick patterns and support and resistance.

You don't use any indicators SMA sometimes , use plot trend lines and support and resistance zones, maybe Fibs or Pivot points. YouTube channels- 1. Trading with Rayner Teo. Adam Khoo. The Chart Guys. The Trading Channel and some other channels including regional ones. Books- 1. Technical Analysis Explained. The trader's book of volume. Trading price action trends. Trading price action reversals. Trading price actions ranges. Naked forex. Technical analysis of the financial markets.

I think this is enough information to help you get started. Price Action trading includes a few parts. Candlestick patterns You'll have to be able to spot a bullish engulfing or a bearish engulfing pattern. Or a doji or a morning star. Chart Patterns. The flag, wedge, channels or triangles. These are often quite helpful in chart analysis without using indicators. Support or Resistance. I've seen people draw 15 lines of support and resistance, this just makes your chart messy and you don't know where the price will take a support.

You can also you the demand and supply zone concept if you're more comfortable with that. There's a quote "Boule precedes price". Volume analysis is a bit hard, but it's totally worth learning. Divergence is also a great concept. Multiple time frames. To confirm a trend or find the long term support or resistance, you can use a higher time frame. Plus, it is more reliable and divergence is way stronger on it.

You can conclude everything to make a powerful system. Like if there's a divergence price up volume down and there's a major resistance on some upper level and a double top is formed, That's a very reliable strategy to go short.

Combinations of various systems work very good imo. Does this mean that indicators are useless? No, I use moving averages and RSI quite frequently. Using price action and confirming it through indicators gives me a higher win rate. This is an updated copy of the version on BadHistory. I plan to update it in accordance with the feedback I got. I'd like to thank two people who will remain anonymous for helping me greatly with this post you know who you are Three years ago a festschrift for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri was published by Shubhra Chakrabarti, a history teacher at the University of Delhi and Utsa Patnaik, a Marxist economist who taught at JNU until One of the essays in the festschirt by Utsa Patnaik was an attempt to quantify the "drain" undergone by India during British Rule.

Her conclusion? There's also plenty of references to it here on Reddit. Patnaik is not the first to calculate such a figure. The huge range of figures should set off some alarm bells. So how did Patnaik calculate this shockingly large figure? Well, even though I don't have access to the festschrift, she conveniently has written an article detailing her methodology here.

Let's have a look. This is begging the question. This is completely meaningless. To understand why it's meaningless consider India's annual coconut exports. These are almost certainly a surplus but the surplus in trade is countered by the other country buying the product indeed, by definition , trade surpluses contribute to the GDP of a nation which hardly plays into intuitive conceptualisations of drain. Drain theory possessed the political merit of being easily grasped by a nation of peasants.

Simply put, Britain used locally raised rupee tax revenues to pay for its net import of goods, a highly abnormal use of budgetary funds not seen in any sovereign country. The issue with figures like these is they all make certain methodological assumptions that are impossible to prove.

From Roy in Frankema et al. First, it rests on the counterfactual that any money saved on account of factor payments abroad would translate into domestic investment, which can never be proved. Second, it rests on "the primitive notion that all payments to foreigners are "drain"", that is, on the assumption that these payments did not contribute to domestic national income to the equivalent extent Kumar , ; see also Chaudhuri Again, this cannot be tested.

Indeed, drain theory rests on some very weak foundations. This, in of itself, should be enough to dismiss any of the other figures that get thrown out. Nonetheless, I felt it would be a useful exercise to continue exploring Patnaik's take on drain theory. So what's going on here? Well Roy explains it better: Colonial India ran an export surplus, which, together with foreign investment, was used to pay for services purchased from Britain.

These payments included interest on public debt, salaries, and pensions paid to government offcers who had come from Britain, salaries of managers and engineers, guaranteed profts paid to railway companies, and repatriated business profts. How do we know that any of these payments involved paying too much? The answer is we do not. So what was really happening is the government was paying its workers for services as well as guaranteeing profits - to promote investment - something the GoI does today Dalal , and promoting business in India , and those workers were remitting some of that money to Britain.

This is hardly a drain unless, of course, Indian diaspora around the world today are "draining" it. In some cases, the remittances would take the form of goods as described see Chaudhuri : It is obvious that these debit items were financed through the export surplus on merchandise account, and later, when railway construction started on a large scale in India, through capital import.

Until the East India Company followed a cumbersome method in remitting the annual home charges. This was to purchase export commodities in India out of revenue, which were then shipped to London and the proceeds from their sale handed over to the home treasury.

While Roy's earlier point argues better paid officers governed better, it is honestly impossible to say what part of the repatriated export surplus was a drain, and what was not. However calling all of it a drain is definitely misguided. Re-exports necessarily adds value to goods when the goods are processed and when the goods are transported.

The country with the largest navy at the time would presumably be in very good stead to do the latter. While interesting, and certainly expected for such an old book, re-exporting necessarily adds value to goods. So, what does this mean? Britain appropriated all of India's earnings, and then spent a third of it aboard? Not exactly. She is describing home charges see Roy again: Some of the expenditures on defense and administration were made in sterling and went out of the country.

This payment by the government was known as the Home Charges. For example, interest payment on loans raised to finance construction of railways and irrigation works, pensions paid to retired officers, and purchase of stores, were payments in sterling. India bought something and paid for it. State revenues were used to pay for wages of people hired abroad, pay for interest on loans raised abroad, and repatriation of profits on foreign investments coming into India.

These were legitimate market transactions. Indeed, if paying for what you buy is drain, then several billions of us are drained every day. It should be noted that India having two heads was beneficial, and encouraged investment per Roy : The fact that the India Office in London managed a part of the monetary system made India creditworthy, stabilized its currency, and encouraged foreign savers to put money into railways and private enterprise in India.

Current research on the history of public debt shows that stable and large colonies found it easier to borrow abroad than independent economies because the investors trusted the guarantee of the colonist powers.

The rate between gold-linked sterling and silver rupee at which the bills were issued, was carefully adjusted to the last farthing, so that foreigners would never find it more profitable to ship financial gold as payment directly to Indians, compared to using the CB route. Sunderland argues CBs had two main roles and neither were part of a grand plot to keep gold out of India : Council bills had two roles. They firstly promoted trade by handing the IO some control of the rate of exchange and allowing the exchange banks to remit funds to India and to hedge currency transaction risks.

They also enabled the Indian government to transfer cash to England for the payment of its UK commitments. It doesn't appear that others appreciate their insight Roy : K. Per capita annual foodgrains absorption in British India declined from kg. Dewey points out reliability issues with Indian agriculutural statistics, however this calorie decline persists to this day. If even a part of its enormous foreign earnings had been credited to it and not entirely siphoned off, India could have imported modern technology to build up an industrial structure as Japan was doing.

This is, unfortunately, impossible to prove. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication that India would've united this is arguably more plausible than the given counterfactual 1. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been nuked in WW2, much like Japan.

Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been invaded by lizard people, much like Japan. The list continues eternally. Nevertheless, I will charitably examine the given counterfactual anyway.

Did pre-colonial India have industrial potential? The answer is a resounding no. From Gupta : This article starts from the premise that while economic categories - the extent of commodity production, wage labour, monetarisation of the economy, etc - should be the basis for any analysis of the production relations of pre-British India, it is the nature of class struggles arising out of particular class alignments that finally gives the decisive twist to social change.

Arguing on this premise, and analysing the available evidence, this article concludes that there was little potential for industrial revolution before the British arrived in India because, whatever might have been the character of economic categories of that period, the class relations had not sufficiently matured to develop productive forces and the required class struggle for a 'revolution' to take place.

A view echoed in Raychaudhuri : Yet all of this did not amount to an economic situation comparable to that of western Europe on the eve of the industrial revolution. Her technology - in agriculture as well as manufacturers - had by and large been stagnant for centuries.

No scientific or geographical revolution formed part of the eighteenth-century Indian's historical experience. So now we've established India did not have industrial potential, was India similar to Japan just before the Meiji era? The answer, yet again, unsurprisingly, is no. Japan's economic situation was not comparable to India's, which allowed for Japan to finance its revolution.

From Yasuba : All in all, the Japanese standard of living may not have been much below the English standard of living before industrialization, and both of them may have been considerably higher than the Indian standard of living. We can no longer say that Japan started from a pathetically low economic level and achieved a rapid or even "miraculous" economic growth. Japan's per capita income was almost as high as in Western Europe before industrialization, and it was possible for Japan to produce surplus in the Meiji Period to finance private and public capital formation.

The circumstances that led to Meiji Japan were extremely unique. See Tomlinson : Most modern comparisons between India and Japan, written by either Indianists or Japanese specialists, stress instead that industrial growth in Meiji Japan was the product of unique features that were not reproducible elsewhere. Hopefully that's enough to bury it in the ground.

Several authors have affirmed that Indian identity is a colonial artefact. For example see Rajan : Perhaps the single greatest and most enduring impact of British rule over India is that it created an Indian nation, in the modern political sense. After centuries of rule by different dynasties overparts of the Indian sub-continent, and after about years of British rule, Indians ceased to be merely Bengalis, Maharashtrians,or Tamils, linguistically and culturally.

Agrarian and other histories: Essays for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri. Colombia University Press Hickel, Jason Indiapost Monbiot, George English Landowners have stolen our rights. It is time to reclaim them. The Guardian Tsjeng, Zing Vice Chaudhury, Dipanjan The Economic Times Roy, Tirthankar Palgrave Macmillan Patnaik, Utsa How the British impoverished India. Hindustan Times Tuovila, Alicia Expenditure method. Investopedia Dewey, Clive Changing the guard: The dissolution of the nationalist—Marxist orthodoxy in the agrarian and agricultural history of India.

India's Struggle for Independence, Cambridge University Press Dalal, Sucheta TheWire Chaudhuri, K. X - Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments — Cambridge University Press Sunderland, David Boydell Press Dewey, Clive Athlone Press Smith, Lisa The Economic Journal Vankatesh, P. Economic and Political Weekly Raychaudhuri, Tapan I - The mid-eighteenth-century background. Cambridge University Press Yasuba, Yasukichi A Comment. Cambridge University Press Rajan, M. The Impact of British Rule in India.

Journal of Contemporary History Bryant, G. It should be noted that I am no expert by any means, I'm actually quite new to this, it is just an elementary analysis of patterns in price and time. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not advice for a person to enter trades upon.

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. For the purposes of this DD, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. We will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock.

The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges.

Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time x-axis and price y-axis. The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past.

Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points.

When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall.

In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.

According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend as the contrarian trading in this sub often does.

Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure.

The market is technically open hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements.

Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things. The major problem with volume is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic.

Most traders are not active at terminal discretes because of levels of fear. Allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear.

Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX. As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend is imminent. Trend Definition Analysis — Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process.

Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.

Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to.

An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards uptrend or a line from three bottoms going downwards downtrend. It is not possible to correctly draw an uptrend line on the SPY chart, but it is possible to correctly draw a downtrend — indicating that the overall trend is downwards.

Time Symmetry Now that we have determined that the overall trend is downwards, the next issue is the question of when SPY will bottom out. Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords.

Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge.

Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others.

It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.

Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points.

They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will complete our analysis of time by measuring it in intervals of bars.

Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work.

Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram — A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness.

Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Following the same methodology, we get the third and tenth days of the month as the likeliest days. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the end of the month has replaced the average of the tenth.

Therefore, we have four primary dates for our histogram. How do we narrow this group down with any accuracy? The 8. However, we can time-shift to other peaks and troughs to determine a date for this year. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, for the end of the bear market - roughly speaking.

As we move forward in time, our predictions may be less accurate. I have also assumed that the audience believes in these models, which is not necessary. Anyone with free time may construct histograms and view these time models, determining for themselves what is accurate and what is not. Hey, I hope you're doing well. Forex market gives you all sorts of emotion at the start. You'll learn to not feel anything in your journey. The reason I wrote the post is to give some tips, see I started not too long ago and found out some tips that would have saved me from blowing my account.

Trade the trends. Also don't forget to calculate the price per pip. Most heavy movers are not there so the market tend to have very high spreads. This will eat you up unless you know what you're doing and your stop loss is very strong. Don't chase it. I know this feeling man, it sucks. But you have to accept the error and learn from it. Trade when everything is in your favor. Protect your wins at all costs. Sometimes it's better not to trade. You do not have to trade daily, while the idea of making money everyday sounds cool realistically some days you will be sitting in front of screen planning your next trade.

It works sometime but you are giving yourself a huge risk. And your stop loss will likely hit, basically wasting good money. Currencies are correalated with one another, check the health of the trend if it starts slowing down you might want to take your profits. You will learn and be successful how you want.

Don't rush, don't over trade. That's all that I can think of. Personally, I have blown 2 live accounts with thousands in it. Right now I am seeing profits consistently, but it wasn't easy.