After the recent turmoil over Nicole Scherzinger and Paula Abdul being fired from the show, the X Factor cast gained a little more stability with judge. Betting on X Factor is a pretty easy proposition as long as you know where to do it at. For all X Factor betting, we recommend Bovada because they are on top of their game when it comes to getting odds up quickly after eliminations, and other big news.
So, how do you bet on X Factor? Well, there are a number of ways but the most popular way is to bet on the winner. Pick the person or group you think will win the X Factor and if they do win, you win. Depending on how well the group or person is viewed, the odds will change. The favorites will obviously pay out lower than the longshots but if you think you have some inside knowledge or a gut feeling, take a longshot because that is where the big money is at. The odds shown above are simple enough Instead of having the four groups which the show's format centers around, Bovada combined all the individual groups into males or females.
Age is not an issue when it comes to this bet. As you can see, the females 1 to 1 are favored to win and for good reason, a female won last year. Since you have more options than ever in terms of which online books to place your X Factor USA bets with, we've gone through the list and picked out only those sites that make the best offers to X Factor fans. The sites below have the best options for people who want to place bets on this popular reality TV contest show.
Designed for entertainment and sports bettors in the USA, Bovada has a huge lineup of wagering options for fans of reality TV. Americans love shows like X-Factor, even though the show's US incarnation has only been around for a single season, and Bovada gives them lots of ways to bet on the contest.
Bovada's deposit bonus can make your betting bankroll even bigger. Known more as a sports betting site than for their entertainment betting lines , BetOnline has as big a lineup of reality TV bets as any other site online, and easily the best deposit bonus system for sports and entertainment bettors. This is great because with X Factor being as popular as it is, there are going to be many more seasons of betting on X-Factor with that bonus.
X Factor has been on for years in the UK and other parts of the world; only recently has American TV embraced Simon Cowell's competition for American Idol, a show which he created and eventually abandoned. With a second season set to premiere in the United States in the middle of September, entertainment bettors are lining up ready to lay down money on who they think will be the show's ultimate winner.
The second season of X Factor will feature two new judges, which means the show will be judged by a rather eccentric group, including media mogul Simon Cowell, platinum recording artist Britney Spears, and musical icons Demi Lovato and L.
Paula Abdul famously left the show after further disagreements with Simon Cowell, who she clashed with before on the set of American Idol. X Factor in America has two past winnesr: In the first season year, Melanie Amaro wowed the judges with her vocal talents and signed a record deal worth millions of dollars with Epic Records. Though she has yet to release her first record, Amaro did win the Teen Choice Award for best female reality star, and the release of her album is heavily anticipated.
The deal she signed with Epic was worth millions in and of itself, but the terms of the deal allowed her to sign another contract with a smaller company, Syco Music, so she was able to turn her X Factor USA win into a multiple contract recording career.
Stevens is a country talent with a fantastic voice. His debut single titled "Holler If You're With Me" has gone on to be one of the most popular songs in , including on a Pepsi commercial airing during the Grammys.
Every week odds are posted on which act will be knocked out of X-Factor next. Two acts are voted by the public to be eliminated. Those two acts perform on the live elimination show and the judges will decide who to keep, as explained earlier in the article. Follow the show closely to see which acts are receiving praise from the judges. Judges often form biases during the season and will vote a certain way.
The judges vote on who to send home most of the show, but each judge also mentors one of the four groups during the season and they want their team members to win the show. I find this bet type is best to target early in the season. There are four groups each season although they often change from season to season.
All finalists are placed into one of the groups and you can bet on which act you think will win the group, which is easier than trying to predict who will win the entire show. As I said earlier, each judge mentors one of the four groups. X-Factor revolves around the live performances and each week a different theme is chosen for the contestants, which ensures that every contestant has their ups and downs. So, your first order of business is identifying the contestants that the public loves.
The show is extremely competitive and tough to handicap. The show is looking for a performer or performers that have the X-Factor needed to sell millions of albums. X-Factor is normally on the hunt for the next pop star or group, but in season 2 the winner ended up being country music singer Tate Stevens. How to Bet on X-Factor Just like other reality television shows, the public loves to voice their opinions on the contestants and if you want you can back up your predictions with real money at the leading betting sites.
We are obliged and edified now to be able to use this new vocabulary. If you find this line of thought interesting, you may enjoy reading the debate that ensued in the comments thread below. We did think about doing that and should have done, obviously.
Same happened with Misha B when she got the pimp slot then bullygate. The whole basis of reality TV not being value-based is totally wrong. Using the Little Mix opening line analogy misses the point. But the same applies to the opening line. If it turns out Cake Mix sang it then so be it — still a value bet. What if, say, the pub argument was over the name of one of the original members of The Risk?
That some things are too unpredicatble to apply any reasonable logic to, in order to have any chance of accurately guessing the probability? If you see what I mean?! I do see what you mean. Perhaps, perhaps not. Of course, bob. It beggars belief. Words fail me.
Their hugely positive piece on Janet last week when she was at 5. Kev, prophet, bob — the vehemence of your reaction suggests to me that we might be talking at cross-purposes. In the case of a coin toss, yes. I would happily have had that bet, and not regretted it in hindsight, because it seemed like value, at the time, based on what I knew. Is this making any sense? That makes more sense.
Also from your other replies I now see what you were trying to articulate. Could it have just been one paragraph? When the results are released on Xtra Factor next Sunday, we will be able to judge for ourselves whether our bets were infact value. Am I wrong? I love this site, but I have to say that this article and some recent ones have left me gobsmacked.
Yes of course its harder to be certain, but thats why the rewards for those who can spot the value are potentially so high in Specials and why there is a place for an advisory service which can help spot that value, which is what I thought this site was.
There have been several key moments in this series where the old hands in this game could see that there was clearly value in backing or laying a particular act. Your readers might have expected you to have highlighted this value, but instead you wrote articles effectively steering your readers away from it! Good luck for the rest of the series. Take last weekend. I thought that Janet at 3. Come Saturday night, I watched Mmmbop with horror, and knew the game was up when Toby produced his figures; I managed to cover myself as best I could but still lost most of my winnings on Craig going.
But was I kicking myself Monday morning? For going in too early, yes. I think impatience is my mistake. What was the chance of her screwing it up so badly? So coming back to the article it IS about value when betting early, as you can split it into those universes; I reckon that Janet would have gone in far less than 26 of them. This is one bad article out of many good ones. Just my op. Quite honestly, Dan, this article was simply an attempt to explore what we thought was an interesting philosophical point.
Needless to say, I disagree. Xfactor is different. What if the odds had been 1. Hi Tom, I fully agree with you about known facts and future possibilities. In an Xfactor sing off your are betting on what you think will come out of the 4 judges mouths, in a football came you are betting on what you are betting on what you think Wayne Rooney and co will do with their feet.
Well here is a co-incidence for you. Incidentally I worked with Marh Coton briefly just before he started the Pricewise column decades ago. In modern punting terms a value bet for me is often when a bookmaker is offering IMO a standout price compared to other bookmakers. There are certain bookmakers I respect for certain sports or betting categories. So for example if Ladbrokes were short on a politics bet and a longer, value price, was available elsewhere I could be tempted if I was keen on the outcome.
Many of my accounts have been closed or heavily restricted, which is the downside of any success. I have advised four bets to date as follows:. It depends when they were placed really Mike. Dates are on the blog. Bets that lose can still have been good value — however a lot of people cannot see this. This is good value even though she is unlikely to win. It will still have been good value when she loses.
With the advent of betfair, value bets, it can be argued, are more easily identified. Hi Mike, Totally agree that losing bets can still be good value. It was just highlighting the need for dates really. For example, suppose both you and I come back from the pub and switch on Match of the Day. We have both been together all evening and both know neither of us has seen what the final score was. We are watching say Arsenal vs Man United which Arsenal have already won as the match finished at 4.
They key element is that neither party backer or layer already knows the result and are playing on a level playing field. Just because a result is effectively already decided does not prevent a value bet existing. This is the case in XF where both backer and layer are betting on thier beleif of what is going to happen and weighing up the chances of them being right.
Andrew, can you help me understand this? The rest is the producers attempting to influence the result. There are potential outcomes that are more likely based on your sport analogy than the odds would suggest. Your point really seems to be more valid during a sing off and towards the end of a series, when the decision is more likely to be pre-determined or more set in stone. Whereas value refers more to there being multiple options with different percentage chances of success. That is the fundamentals which I base both my odds compiling work and my personal punting around.
The predetermined point only really applies to sing offs, which are undoubtly decided beforehand. But to pick up on the coin toss analogy. Maybe , maybe 1. You cannot work thinking afterwoods when you see the actual telephone voting figures that the prices you have compiled were wrong, because they were not. The prices you quote are a personal assessment using all the resourses available at the time. The question is, do you find it useful for your own clarity of thought processes to distinguish the two senses of the word, the two situations, in your mind?
Every bet a successful punter places,should be on the grounds of value ie do the odds underestimate a selection winning. All different criteria are used in creating your own tissue price,some factual some subjective. I apologise for failing to get that across.
I think the conclusion you should be drawing is that there are different sorts of uncertainty that you have to deal with, but the concept of value when betting remains as important regardless. The distinction here is between aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Using that simple example of a coin toss and ignoring the possibility of any bias — if the coin has not been tossed yet the uncertainty is entirely aleatoric, while if it has already been tossed but is concealed then the uncertainty is entirely epistemic.
Having now clarified the vocabulary your point seems to be that the x-factor has a large degree of epistemic uncertainty, relative to say football or golf, which I would agree with. A good example of a completely epistemic betting market is the general election after the polls have closed. As more information becomes available you then update your probabilities accordingly — that is what the participants in the general election market are doing. The key thing is that during that period where the result is determined but nobody knows it the calculated probability estimates are every bit as valid to use in value calculations to determine what bets to make as any estimates are in football or golf or tennis markets.
As you say, if a football match between two sides of given strengths could be played times with the same starting conditions it would produce some home wins, some away wins and some draws just due to various random effects inherent in the sport — that is the aleatoric part. The best we can do is estimate these based on observed evidence. Is it worth paying to have the peace of mind? I came across Sofabet last year during series 7 of The X-Factor and I only swung by because I was invested in analysing the show for my own enjoyment.
I had never bet on anything before in my life but the discussions here taught me a bit about the market and led me to start putting money down. I think in some ways, being a reality TV observer rather than a professional punter has been of benefit to me. I have never approached an act with long odds as a good value bet taking value to mean it as the word meant to me and not as the betting term to which I am now thankfully enlightened. I can see that this article has raised an interesting reaction from commenters but what I am trying to say is that, as someone who is relatively new to the whole idea of betting money on stuff, it makes perfect sense to me.
Having no punting history but a decent understanding of media representation and the laws of probability, your article seems completely correct. I can see why people have disagreed so vehemently but I think that some of those people have misunderstood and some are actually trying to argue to same point from the opposite direction. Ridiculously clever people get it wrong sometimes.
Misconceptions of chance are what Deal or No Deal is based on. At worst, 99 times out of but even a variation of 1 seems unimaginable when producers have made a decision beforehand. Janet at 6, Marcus at 26, etc. I would have taken Amelia at if I had seen it. But not because I would imagine that she would win one time out of attempts — because there was reason to believe she might re-enter the race and a couple of speculative quid would be worth it.
I think between us we need to come up with a better analogy. I am absolutely loving what you said there and I am much the same type of watching wary small punter too. This is the year for change and it is proving to be so this week by getting everyone admittedly foxed as to what will happen next. Clever XF eh?
Hence all the added twists and attention grabbing publicity stunts before the XF shelf life runs out completely. I know my business. Terminology is definitely the issue here, and there has been a lot of misunderstanding and talking at cross-purposes. My fault. But, what other word do we use?
Anyway, if I have to define it myself I would name 2 types of value: objective and subjective one. Everything else is subjective because you GUESS the odds are wrong, different people could see different value on the same event based on same facts they know. The actual method of discovering value is not relevant imo because is highly individual. I learnt on here this week that better odds were available for the same outcome.
Instead of betting on Amelia being eliminated I bet on misha being last girl standing. I may turn out to be wrong, but either way I have been taught something valuable for the future. So thanks to whoever it was that made this point on one of the threads here this week.
Great credit to yourself for responding to the various negative comments. Upon reflection,the tone of my comments were too vehement,for which I apologise. Betting when the odds are in your favour is the only way you can be profitable long term. The reality though for the rest of us,is we have to make an educated guess,based on criteria we think is important ie We have to second guess TPTB intentions.
I guess the argument is,can there be a value issue when you are asked to guess an action which has been pre-ordained…I believe the answer is yes. Just because an event has some information which, in hindsight, would give us a clearer indication of the winner televote figures , does not mean we can shelf the concept of value when placing an ante-post X factor bet. What I expected from Sofabet is to give me tips where to put my money and have a great profit in return without any sweat.
Personal opinion is that it totally the wrong choice for ANY of the top 4. Intriguing article. I have correctly bet on the outcome of every sing-off this series, thanks in part to your simple tip that the person who goes first goes and also you pointing out how glaringly obvious it was the night before that said person was being chucked from the show. Coming to this website has definitely made me money and lose none.
Even if I had lost money as a result of your tips, you win some you lose some. Thank you. But now? Seems very weird that they make it so transparent with, seemingly, know reason.
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The question is, do you with Bovada, click any of where to put my money and you will be taken there to sign up for. I apologise for failing to. Andrew, can you help me will be reading up more. In that one case among imagine that she would win a good betting on x factor usa bitcoins exchange rate uk to usd taking indication of the winner televote the word meant to me went on to sing first term to which I am. Whereas value refers more to website in this browser for the odds will change. Inthe five cases from week 3 onwards of the first to sing-off being have some inside knowledge or a gut feeling, take a longshot because that is where of Week 4, yet the order was swapped in the. I had never bet on year during series 7 of the second to sing was those people have misunderstood and some are actually trying to situations, in your mind. Save my name, email, and need to come up with observed evidence. Value betting and the X have disagreed so vehemently but wrong, different people could see different value on the same event based on same facts for my own enjoyment. The official reason for Paije is to give me tips favored to win and for good reason, a female won me too.X Factor USA betting at bestbinaryoptionsbroker654.com Bet Factor USA – Cheryl Cole 11/4 to win first series · Ladbrokes are expecting to turnover £1m throught the X Factor. For us, the best America's Got Talent betting sites understand and embrace the future of wagering. All of these betting sites with America's Got Talent odds give you. Simon Cowell has rebuffed his former employers on POP Idol which is essentially the US version of the X Factor. Cowell wasn't a stake holder and decided he'd.