Horse betting formula

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Danny had been using a system of betting that his girlfriend who had a Masters degree in Mathematics from Stanford had developed to pick out the second most likely horse to win a race. She developed this system in order to take advantage of the higher expectation of betting on the second best horse arising from parimutual betting.

When Danny noticed that it was the second best horse that had been winning consistantly, he suspected that the races were being fixed, and took advantage of it. Parimutual betting is performed at horse tracks all over the globe. Rather than a professional gambler determining the proper odds for a race based on knowledge of the horses and experience , this system allows bettors to determine the odds by themselves.

We'll give a simple example of a payout system where only bets for the winning horse pay off money. Suppose that the track is running a 5 horse race, and say that bets are placed as follows. We can see that Parimutual betting guarantees the house a profit, since it always pays out exactly what it took in minus the cut of course, we're assuming the cut covers the cost of operation and no laws interfere. Horse racing can have that resurgence too, and it won't take a Triple Crown winner to do it.

People just need to think they are smarter than the game and believe they can win. The money can be made up to a degree in television ratings and advertising. If people think they have an edge over the house, they will pay very close attention. As soon as the system starts getting beaten, the people in charge of the track will change it.

The house is always designed to win. Horse racing will be fine, especially after finding a new casual audience of supporters. They get their rake no matter what. All it takes is a formula that will produce winners with consistency. A formula that can pick horses better than just looking at the morning line odds would make people feel like they have a huge advantage. Now I have my task. The base of my research was academic journals.

Curiously enough, there are more than a few scholars who have been enthralled enough by the sport and the math involved to have published there own works on the subject. Bolton and Randall G. Chapman, I found the information that would carry me through this project. Bolton and Chapman set out to find which variables would be most important to consider when evaluating the horses in a race, and predicting the outcome.

There research suggested that "average amount of money earned per race in the current year" and "average speed rating over the last four races" were the two most important factors. The shocker to me was that jockeys, post position, and weight were deemed inconsequential for the most part. The best jockeys were often put on the best horses, and their correlation nullified much of their value.

Armed with this new information, it was time to make an equation of my own. I have the variables deemed most important by Bolton and Chapman, and needed to weigh them. In the case of betting on a Maiden race, where none of the competing horses has ever won a race in its life, I decided to change the "lifetime win percentage" to "lifetime in the money percentage", or how many times the horse has finished in the top three in the number of times the horse has competed.

Please note: All of the statistics that I use in this formula can be found in he Daily Racing Form, and you can use this the next time you go to the track. Of my three important variables, "money earned per race in the current year", and "average speed rating over the last four races" were the most important, while "lifetime win percentage" was significant. Each horse is then rated by these past performances in comparison to the other horses in the race.

If it were a four horse race, the top horse would earn 4 points, a five horse race, 5 points, etc. Ok, are we all still together on this one? It's ok to go back and go over that again. It took me a few tries myself. I'd hate for someone to fall astray, get a bad ranking system, and then come back and yell at me because they lost a lot of money. We're good? Moving on then.

Let us suggest that the equations were performed for all the horses in an upcoming five horse race. Now, remember how we weighted the values from before? I wasn't just screwing around with nonsense. Multiply their points in each category by the values they were given earlier. Let us look at how they stack up now.

This is your own independent way to calculate the horses on your own. The best part is that now we can take it one step further. With the information you have in that last table, you can calculate what percentage of the total points each horse has, and have a rough estimate of what percentage each horse has of winning the race. In the case of horse 1, it has 26 of a possible points,

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