Martingale betting in vegas

The character in the movie Benjamin Button gets hit by lightning seven times. Everyone knows this unlikely to the point of essentially being impossible. But unless you are engaged in dangerous behavior like standing under trees or in open fields in lightning storms, being hit by lightning once doesn't make it any less likely that you will be hit a second time over anyone else being hit.

This innate distaste about random events occurring outside of human control forces people to invent patterns. If you see a craps player hit their point over and over there is a natural tendency to want to bet on that person making their point again.

I have a friend who draws to inside straights because she thinks it is more challenging to drawing to an outside straight. I know the Wizard talks about con men that exploit this innate human drive to sell artificial systems, but casinos are the biggest exploiter. They hand out papers and pencils at baccarat tables so that people can discover patterns. A casino knows that if you put up an electronic board that keeps track of the last dozen roulette wheels will make people run over and bet the opposite color if it becomes heavily shaded in one direction or the other.

Try putting a list of 1's and 0's in a long line in an Excel spreadsheet. Try getting a friend to make a random list of ones and zeros in an Excel spreadsheet. Stress that you want them to make it as random as possible. The probability is very low that they will put streaks as long as 8, and in fact they often don't make them longer than five in a row.

You can quickly tell which data is artificial and which is real. You can use techniques like this to determine when people are stuffing ballot boxes or are faking data for forms. February 1st, at PM permalink. Thanks for all your answers! I was actually going to use Sic Bo as my example, until I realised I got my math wrong. If someone martingales in a bet which has a bonus win, should he incorporate the bonus winnings as part of his expected winnings? Joined: Nov 12, Threads: 17 Posts: February 2nd, at AM permalink.

In craps, a bonus winning would be on a field bet on the 2 or 12 which pays double and triple. But then you are talking about a HA of Better off to play roulette. In blackjack, a bonus winning would be a "blackjack". But with Martingaling in Blackjack, you might be forced to double down, split, and possibly lose an already leveraged hand. You can't handle the truth! February 2nd, at PM permalink.

February 19th, at AM permalink. Thanks for all the replies! Currently, I'm trying a martingale strategy on the dozens bet pays 3 for every 1. What I'm doing : Playing it like a regular martingale, capping myself at a loss streak of 6.

Goal : to break even or make a profit before the initial bankroll goes belly up, in which I'll walk away with whatever I set aside. Of course, the green 0's throw off the exact percentages, but the winning amount reasoning still stands. Progress so far : Don't really have a computer simulator program written up to test a billion simulations, so I'm just testing it against the free play roulette programs thats found everywhere.

Unfortunately, I'm only breaking even so far, will let you know how it turns out. Joined: Feb 12, Threads: 6 Posts: ElyT I am kind of amazed that with all the math "expertise" exhibited on this site that there seems to be no one thinking a little bit outside the box. First, I am not a real fan of any Martingale systems wagering. Most all believe that unless there is an unlimited bankroll and no table limits, losses will bankrupt most any player.

However, for fun, try this at the craps table. A 7 out you lose then double the bet on the 9, again after the point is established. What is neat is that the odds paid on a win along with doubling the bet provides a net win for all previous losses. But using it continuously will leave you either busted, or if you have the bankroll , bumping up against the house limits in no time.

Assuming you lose and double up, your bets would look as follows:. The chances of losing 8 hands of blackjack in a row are slim. This is true. In a great article by Frank Martin on the brilliant and insightful WzzardofOdds. Go here to read about the Martingale roulette system. Keep in mind, this is just for playing hands. And playing more than hands gets you closer to the probability that you will lose 8 hands in a row.

Hopefully a pit boss will comp you a buffet. As long as I can walk away, the Martingale has sort of worked. Again though, this is a result of short term luck, rather than proof of a successful betting strategy. Be thankful, because no one would want to claim credit for inventing a foolish system that has given false hope to countless gamblers, just before breaking them with a blackjack, roulette or baccarat losing streak of seven, eight or more in a row.

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