However the very existence of this thread is evidence of bubble territory. Sell comrade, sell! In reply to ablackett: So how much bigger can the bubble get? What happens when all the possible bitcoins have been mined and are 'live'? StefanB 06 Nov But miners also get money from transactions maintaining the leger that is the blockchain. So there is still money to be made from being a 'node' in the blockchain.
The upcoming split is worse than usual because it's not a 'soft' fork where a new coin like Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin Gold splits off the main chain but a hard fork which will create two competing 'main' chains which will fight it out for support from miners and almost certainly one will die off.
In reply to StefanB: Yep you are right. In a hard fork, the old blocks will never be accepted in to the blockchain so the work of any nodes wallets and services running on the old software are performing redundant work on a minority fork.
There can be no fight between competing chains. In reply to Shani: One thing that annoys me a lot about distributed ledger technology is that it is fairly difficult to explain I do that as part of my job sometimes and it is getting to a point where the people that dominate decision making on adoption and technology selection legislators and investors basically simply don't know enough. This is not helped by some of the terminology used by the creators of these concepts.
Terms like fork, ICO, tokens, mining, staking, etc. Also, even the developers don't make a effort to distinguish terms for protocols, application layer currencies, data structure, etc. In reply to Shani: What!! Why should I choose bitcoin over cash, which is simple and straightforward?
In reply to StefanB: You're probably well ahead of me in understanding it. I understand blockchains more than the detail of Bitcoin - although I've got a reasonable grasp. In reply to Shani: Well I do understand that, so thanks! Cash is very simple, and I can see the risks e.
While in principle cash can too, in practice the trust depends on economies where it is fairly easy to judge whether to place trust or not. How does it work on Azure? Is there some. In reply to Shani: Well I'll leave bitcoin to you for now, thanks.
But two points: Yep my phone is complex and I don't understand it. But if I drop it in a puddle, I buy a new one. Not so easy to replace money. How many times in history have codes been declared unbreakable? In reply to Shani: What's this got to do with lentils? StefanB 07 Nov I find it hard to understand and explain it myself - but Steff might be able to explain it better than me. Simon Singh's code book is a good place to start. Your point about humans as the weakest link is spot on.
That is what I was getting at when I talked about a lack of a single point of failure. The cost of 'proof of work' really does stop a Sybil attack or other actions of a malicious individual. There are some good tutorials on Pluralsight free 6 month trial , that explain both Bitcoin and Blockchain technology. With the latter, there is a great example of how blockchain can be used in auditing and invetory work - well beyond the current focus on cryptocurrency. It is very imaginative stuff. Heroin IS traded in the blink of an eye, electronically, on the dark net, by email, by text etc.
And very often probably paid with currencies such as bitcoin. In reply to Shani: Of course. In reply to ablackett: Ooops! I've not yet found anything that explains it adequately. In reply to Shani: So no one has lost any dosh? Bjartur i Sumarhus 08 Nov In reply to Shani: Whats to understand when your doubling your money every month?
But no one else has gained it! Technically, the money is still there, but inaccessible because of encryption the key has been lost, as I understand it. The top miners try a billion billion combinations a second. The digital signatures are one-way trap door , public key cryptography over an elliptic curve. UKC's resident mathematicians will be better able to explain all this, but in short, you are unlikely to every guess a key.
If you try StefanB 08 Nov In reply to Shani: The way I understand it is that a bug in the smart contract of the wallet exposed a function which allowed to remove the required signatures from a multi sig adress, i. Some guy experimenting has called this several time. He actually came forward xplaining what he did. The money is still there but frozen. There is now some discussion on rolling back the bolckchain to restore access. The problem with this however is that it's against the core idea of the inmutabilty.
And where is the line? Do we roll back every time someone messes up? Or only if there is big money involved? Why are the million dolars of big companies more important than the In any case it highlights the danger of smart contracts. It is going to be VERY hard to control internationally distributed miners. But you are betting on both the public key algorithm and the algorithm than generates the keys.
Just a couple of weeks ago they discovered that a crypto library a lot of people were using was generating weak keys. In reply to ablackett: Can someone translate this thread into normal English for numpties like me who're finding it interesting but hard to understand?
In reply to MG: I am with you on this. Just looks like another bubble waiting to burst. Fine if you were an early stage buyer and have sold by now. ClimberEd 11 Nov In reply to neilh: Just looks like another bubble waiting to burst. That work for your bursting bubble?! The Lemming 11 Nov In reply to Shani: All depends on when you buy and when you get out. If you want to believe this is the future, fine by me. And I would expect you of all people to know your history, think the tulip bubble of Unlike Bitcoin, anyone could grow tulips StefanB 12 Nov Cryptocurrencies are still feeling their way, but i reckon this will hold true.
Other than for buying guns, drugs and body parts on things like the Silk Road what else can you buy with it? Do Tesco take it? I am amazed you are being hood winked. Please tell me have you put a load of money into bitcoins. Have you read up on that? Great the guy who set it up made billions but could not convert it into proper money otherwise he would have been arrested on the spot.
Reality was he was poor and could not realise his gains. A waste of time. In reply to Shani: And replaced by lots of other sites doing the same thing. Just read an excellent description of crypto currencies. They are Disney Dollars which can only be used in Disney parks. Rob Parsons 12 Nov In reply to Shani: All very interesting.
So I watched a couple of videos and I think I now understand a little bit about the basic idea of the blockchain and how bitcoin is related to it. And I understand all the 'why banks and governments are scared of them' idea and why bitcoin should be expected to have value. However, for some time I've had the feeling that in 2 or 3 decades time we'll look back to an unregulated internet where awful things happened because criminal activity was uncontrolled and unmonitored from a position where, whether they liked it or not, ISPs were driven by mulitnational political agreements to regulate.
It looks like the open, distributed nature of the bockchain might suffer with some of that regulation, perhaps for the same reasons? Is that fair? I mean it's a hypothetical that bitcoin trading and the blockchain enterprise should become regulated in some way based on another hypothetical that other parts of the internet will be regulated because the current level of non-regulation seems to this barely technologically sentient observer, at least to be unsustainable.
Or maybe as a global society we will be happy to keep living in the Wild West forever I'm talking about the internet generally there, not the blockchain. In reply to Rob Parsons: Maybe worth you reading up on how electroneum -one of these crypto currencies was hacked by Russians. Also looked at the link. Can you actually use bitcoins to buy anything worthwhile from Microsoft. In reply to sg: It's to your credit that you have looked in to the technology.
New tech can seem unsettling - and i know plenty of people that held out against mobile phones until the reached critical mass, never mind those that held out against Facebook and Twitter. With regard to blochchains, they're here to stay. Chuck in the Dark Web and i don't see how a government can stop an electronic currency that has innate trust value.
Tech raises all sorts of commercial questions. People like neilh can shout all they want but the tech-genie is out of the bottle. In reply to Shani: I agree with everything you say. My point is, to what extent is 'the international community', in so far as such a thing exists, prepared to suffer in the iniquities which surely follow from an unregulated monetary transaction system, in the way that they currently suffer them in an unregulated communication and commerce system the internet.
By that I mean, will we all continue to shrug our shoulders at the existence of the dark web and the fact that criminal activity can thrive in the absence of international control and policing? The very points which the blockchain seek to eliminate - as 'money-grabbing' third party regulators - also act, up to a point and in some ways very far from effectively, I grant you as an important break between money and criminals.
As someone a weak and feeble-minded socialist who gets nervous at even the slightest idea of investment for personal gain and can't help but equate it to exploitation, even though it's where my pension and mortgage get their value from yadayadayada , and is quite happy with regulation where it curbs the worst excesses of human behaviour the blockchain looks a lot like the internet as something that needs a lot of work to make it acceptable.
To put it simply, I want governments to limit people's freedoms in many respects, in this as much as any other enterprise. In reply to sg: Well, we're veering in to wider issues of finance. But the Panama and Paradise papers show that the rich are fully immersed in dodgy financial activity. If anything, cryptocurrencies allow us go cut out the parasitic middlemen of finance.
They allow us to seize a lot of power back from the Establishment. In reply to Shani: Totally understand what you mean. But, in theory, if all the protection mechanisms were to work and taxation was valued for what it gives to governments, those systems we already have can work for the good of all by means of state redistribution. It's hard to see how the blockchain can do that. The question is, are the Establishment good for anything or not, I suppose?!
As you rightly say, the way things currently work vast sums flow away from central banks with the connivance of the Establishment. I'm not sure the blockchain will prevent that. Clever, rich people will just find it easier to add to their wealth.
In reply to Shani: You want to read a biography of the guy who set up the Silk Road. You would quickly change your views on this. He was basically a right wing liberterian who did not want to pay any taxes and viewed government as a waste of time. Hardly fits into your normal narrative of things. In reply to Rob Parsons: Point taken. I just do not like seeing people hoodwinked by the so called next greatest thing which seems to generate wealth without actually doing anything.
There are so many warnings out there on this stuff which people also seem to be ignoring. I would have changed my mind if you could have actually bought something worthwhile on the Microsoft site. It just appears to be playing to the gallery of techies out there. In reply to Shani: You seem rather defensive about all this. If it is so great I am sure you are right, in time it will be widely adopted. Currently however the advantages are unclear, other than for speculation or criminal purposes, but the disadvantages very clear.
The disadvantages are shared with existing monetary systems; Black Wednesday etc In reply to StefanB: Interesting to hear such a real world use. I've heard that families are using bitcoin to transfer funds to families in war torn parts of the middle east, and in hurricane hit parts of the Carribean. It's much easier to transfer and trade in these circumstances with bitcoin because all you need is a mobile and a signal, and occasional power to charge your phone.
In contrast, to 'wire' money as was done traditionally, you need to take ID and other important documents as proof of ID, and pick up cash. If you lose a phone, you shouldn't lose 'everything' in quite the same way. Also, in an age where identity can be stolen, Bitcoin exchanges just require a public key with no connection to, or transfer of, your ID. Incredibly innovative in terms of transacting. It will be interesting to see what happens. And I see that bitcoin dropped in value on Saturday.
In reply to Shani: Well that is to prevent laundering and fraud. I assume then you are all in favour of crypto currencies having that as a plus. Bit coin was set up to avoid censorship. Paying taxes etc etc. Seems as though you have moved to the dark side. In reply to Shani: Open not. StefanB 13 Nov The problem is traceability and laundering. The advantage with the US dollar and others is that its traceable etc etc. Future contracts is just like another Tulip contract going back to the 's.
So all this spohistication to go back to a con or well known bubble done plus years ago. Sounds great. Forgive me if I continue to have a healthy degree of scepticism. I will leave it to my maths friends of mine who like playing with servers in their cellars and look at it as a bit of fun. In reply to StefanB: I will look up, thanks. In reply to Shani: You are right cash is a pretty good way of being untraceable.
But it has limits - no one, certainly no bank, will accept large quantities without a good explanation, for example. As soon as you move into the banking system traceability is pretty good, at least in principle, for any credible jurisdiction, and even in other cases as we have seen recently it is quite likely who does what with which money will become apparent. Bitcoin deliberately avoids all this. I don't see why that is a good thing. It seems like a gift to all criminals to me. Knowing every transaction ever isn't helpful on it's own.
In reply to MG: " Apologies for coming across as strident MG, but this statement is absurdly naive. The number of Russian property tycoons who have paid over the market rates for property from Trump's empire is worthy of further scrutiny Tom - yep, Bitcoin is pseudo-anonymous.
Total anonymity is being worked on or may be being trialled with various obfuscation tools. I will keep going back to Silk Road and how that was set up with bitcoin payments to avoid government intrusion also a reason as to why bitcoin was set up. It illustrates beautifully the paradox of bitcoins , a disney currency which could only be used in a disney park. You could buy body parts with no controls because bitcoin payments were invisible to outside control. Really clever that. Rob Parsons 13 Nov It illustrates beautifully the paradox of bitcoins , a disney currency which could only be used in a disney park SteveD 13 Nov In reply to Rob Parsons: I once said to a financier that I didn't understand money, it seemed all 'Smoke and mirrors' to me.
He replied that I understood it perfectly. In reply to Rob Parsons: Gold you can have in your hands.. And when all said and done govts have gold tucked away and so can individuals. You can after all use gold in other products. Its price rises and falls. I suppose bitcoin is just an extension of bartering but with no physical presence. Put it this way I think most of us on here would be happy with a few gold bars tucked away In reply to Shani: And you are a bitcoin Blair. Merely pointing out what others are saying In reply to ablackett: Just out of interest, is anyone out there actually mining bitcoin using your own kit, not renting cloud resources.
Just wondered whether it was worth a dabble with my blade servers and GPU banks? It's really an algorithm for pipelined hardware and, apart from being really easy to implement as a demo, is not of much interest from a software perspective. The Ethereum hash algorithm is much cleverer and more interesting, it was specifically designed to be memory intensive to prevent the ASIC miners dominating and centralising the Proof of Work.
There are a ton of other Proof of Work algorithms used by the minor alt-coins some of which might be more interesting from an academic perspective but there's generally no money in mining them because the price of the coin is too low. I don't think you will find many very high end GPUs in mining rigs - too expensive relative to hash capacity.
Afterall, Bitcoin can operate without mining, can't it? And indeed will need to at some point, given that there are a fixed number of "coins" to mine. It's a poor choice of word. I need some number crunching to keep warm now winter is coming. Techno babble is what springs to mind.
I wish you all success with your ventures. In reply to Shani: Very familiar with the gold standard. As I had to study it in the past. I'm actually using my 6 GPU rig to keep the conservatory heated at the mo. I bought all the GPUs 2nd hand off eBay tho. In hindsight, I would have made a lot more money if I'd bought Bitcoin instead of the hardware but I'm a geek and enjoyed building it.
Gerry Gradewell 15 Nov The supply is gradually decreasing in its rate of increase, as far as zero, but is never negative this ignores loss of coins on one side and forking on the other. Ever increasing adoption could be another input to deflation but this doesn't seem built in or a even a safe assertion. Am I missing something?
In the flat state where there are no new bitcoins being introduced presumably there's enough incentive in transaction fees to keep the ledger stable. Perhaps the problem solved by mining is in how to 'initialise' value share. MarkM 16 Nov In reply to ablackett: Just caught up on this thread which has been a good read with the usual UKC deviations! No I didn't invest in unfortunately but I dipped a toe into the bitcoin world 2 months or so back and from there have done a fair amount of reading and thinking about it since All relatively high risk but I have my appetite for risk is fairly high so will be waiting to see what happens in the next 12 months ahead with interest!
Bjartur i Sumarhus 17 Nov MarkM 17 Nov In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus: Good luck with that! If you or anyone is interested in going down the ICO route then there's a to my mind very interesting 'index fund' being launched that will invest in the top 20 cryptocurrencies, rebalancing weekly.
Gives access to a significant portfolio without having to do all of that work yourself, which has a lot of appeal for me. In reply to MarkM: wow. Talk about an unregulated market. Cowboys springs to mind. An exempted company in the cayman islands!!! It gets better and better. Please tell me you are not being hoodwinked into running with this. In reply to MarkM: Bitcoin totally dominates the crypto market with Ethereum in second place and a long way behind.
An indexing strategy based on market cap is going to put most of the money in Bitcoin and Ethereum so I'm not sure what you gain from a formal index fund. Most of the trading of altcoins is on pairs against Bitcoin rather than US Dollars because a lot of the exchanges have regulatory issues with US dollars. This means alt-coins tend to move together to respond to things happening to Bitcoin so you don't get as much diversification as you would in say the stock market by holding many different alt-coins.
ICOs need to be treated with caution, they look really good during the sale and pre-sale because they are spending a lot on marketing. Some of them are outright scams. Once they raise their funds the marketing budget gets cut right back and they don't look any different from all the other small time alt-coins.
Most of the time you'd be cheaper ignoring the ICO and buying the coin on an exchange after it started to trade. Bjartur i Sumarhus 18 Nov I had to buy bitcoin first, wait for that to settle, then switch that purchase into ether. On the face of it, not too much trouble but being hit with twice the fees was a bit annoying.
Not sure why I couldn't just buy ether from the outset, unless i'm doing something wrong? In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus: It might be better to use the Blockchain. I think you can buy Ethereum directly there. I've used Kraken. Phil Payne 18 Nov In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus: Try coinbase for bitcoin and ethereum. I can't find the true definition. MarkM 20 Nov In reply to neilh: Hi Neil. Thanks for your concern! Yes it is a new and currently fairly unregulated sector so scams are possible and have occurred.
Yes there's of course a chance I've been 'hoodwinked' Cheers Mark. Yes Bitcoin dominated the market - and may be the key player for some time to come. In fact they've just rebalanced the currently invested funds and you can now see that allocation on their website. Yes I agree you can pick up many tokens cheaper post ICO but these ones haven't been sold at a huge discount pre-ICO and they will be intrinsically linked to the NAV of the underlying tokens so unless there's an overall downward shift there shouldn't be a much better opportunity compared to buying in later.
I've spent way too much time reading about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and ICOs over the last 2 months so something that's a hands off diversified investment appeals. I'll see and report back! Bjartur i Sumarhus 27 Nov In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus: I hope so. In reply to ianstevens: Me too. I have 0. Been sat in a wallet for years. In reply to ablackett: It certainly could be said of a lot of 'real' currencies. In reply to wbo: Printing banknotes or the electronic equivalent isn't energy intensive to anything like that degree.
It was particularly interesting for me, as I am half way through Digital Gold thx to the recommendation earlier in the thread and it is an excellent read. The author and all the characters all contribute to the netflix documentary so the show and the book compliment each other perfectly.
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus: I'll have a look. Dauphin 27 Nov In reply to MG: It will drive investment in renewables like nothing before. Self interest. In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus: I'm not the only one that has been keeping an eye on Etherum then. I purchased some over the weekend after a promising rise over the last few months My bitcoin wallet is looking healthy as well Who needs an ISA ay! In reply to MG: I find this statement pretty ridiculous.
How many banks has bitcoin built around the the world? How many of them banks are full electricity reliant equipment? How many of them banks are full of staff that drive to and from work everyday? Yes Bitcoin mining uses a lot of computer power, but do the alternative banks really use that much less? Banks have every incentive to minimize energy use. Bitcoin is deliberately set up to make it energy intensive as a result of being computationally intensive.
In reply to Shani: Rather than a commodity or currency, bitcoin is like owning stock in a company that will only ever issue 21m shares and never pay a penny in dividends. The only way it has value is if the next guy is willing to pay you more for it — the greater fool.
The biggest Bitcoin miners are in China in a poor province with excess hydro power. Low electricity prices and easy cooling from a cold environment makes mining more economic. In reply to neilh: How is that any different to investing in gold? Bitcoin is at least useful. In reply to snoop I take it you must be one of those people who must be willing to pay more than the previous person. I can think of quite a few things that gold is used in as a metal if all else fails. Please let me know if a bitcoin can be used as anything but a crypto currency.
I hope those people who bought bitcoins a few years ago are now getting out whilst the going is still good. In reply to neilh: "I take it you must be one of those people who must be willing to pay more than the previous person. If you look at the price graph for , whilst the value has shot up, there were still lots of dips. It's notoriously volatile. Plenty of opportunity to pay less than the guy last week did.
Of course not. Funny attitude to have when your picking investments. In reply to neilh: comment BTL that made me smile Blockchain is great, but Bitcoin is still awful. The bet is that you will find somebody willing to pay you more for nothing other than there are a fixed number of bitcoins available. In reply to neilh: Well the coin does have an intrinsic value.
The value of the electricity used to mine it. Currently a tiny fraction have a digital wallet but they are being opened all the time and growing exponentially for now. If this is a bubble, there is a lot of money still waiting to come in so it might have a long way to go. I don't doubt it will have a few sell offs, and luckily for you you will be able to short it with futures very soon and make your fortune fleecing all the sheep who have piled in ;-.
In reply to neilh: Gold's primary function is just to store value. Which is can be used for as it has the property of being a finite resource. But it's practically useless beyond this. It's just a shiny yellow metal that only has industrial applications is minute quantities. You can't actually even spend it. Bitcoin is no different, it's just a store of value but your token of value isn't tangible but does very much exist.
But bitcoin you can trade with. Globally and instantly. So irrespective of people speculating on it, bitcoin is actually useful. In reply to snoop???? You want to learn a bit more about gold is all I can suggest considering it was you who started the comparison.
In reply to krikoman: He's right about gold having other uses but wrong about the implication that this justifies its value. If gold was just a commodity used in industry and jewelry rather than something horded by central banks and investors it would be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now.
You'd be wiped out from holding gold as an investment if everybody else decided it was only useful as an industrial material and all the gold held by central banks was dumped on the market. The value of both gold and bitcoin depends on scarcity and Bitcoin is arguably less manipulated by fractional reserve scams and price fixing and is definitely more practical to transfer and store.
You could also argue that it is undesirable to use a commodity with practical applications as a store of value because the financial use is putting up the cost of making useful products. In reply to krikoman: To be fair I did say that gold has industrial uses in absolute minute quantities. So what is it used for? Say you bought a kilo of gold what practical use do you actually have for it apart from to store value?
That is all it is. In reply to Shani:??? If it was not then simple logic tells you that this level of currency movement would not happen. In reply to snoop Do not understand why you are so fixated by gold. Its a traded commodity like alot of other metals or food stuffs or derivatives or other stuff. Bjartur i Sumarhus 28 Nov Of cash, much of it does not physically move.
Both are subject to criminal enterprise. If you are going to move money electronically, surely you want the most secure electronic money available? MarkM 28 Nov In reply to neilh: Is it time to jump on the bandwagon? I normally wait until the bubble is about to burst so I can maximise my loses! Like all good ponzi schemes it's a sound investment so long as we keep piling in.
In reply to duchessofmalfi: Jumping off seems to be the best thing to do if you bought it low. As soon as something starts going crazy in value or the next best thing, its time to get out. This is when suckers like most private investors lose their shirts as they think its the next best thing. It is classic if you look back at similar scenarios over the years.
Rob Parsons 28 Nov Does the same thing apply? Or is there still a realistic chance for a single miner, using a single machine? StefanB 28 Nov In reply to Rob Parsons: There are crypto currencies designed to not be mineable by special hardware. Ethereum mining is currently highly efficient on GPUs, but is resistant to the specialized bitcoin style asic mining racks.
Others are made for CPU mining, and others do not use mining at all. Ethereum will move to Prove of Stake instead of proof of work at some stage. In reply to Shani: Talking of disrupters. Half a billion more than the other two!
Gerry Gradewell 29 Nov Bjartur i Sumarhus 29 Nov In reply to Gerry Gradewell: possibly clunky use of language. What I mean is, it costs something to produce a bitcoin, so it's possible to attach a value to it. In reply to Rob Parsons: I have heard that one before in other bubbles if only! There are about plus cryptocurrencies. In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus: As long as you sell at the right time. After the collapse of the dotcom bubble I met loads of people who kept saying to me -- if only I had got out earlier.
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