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Making bets two gameweeks in advance is never a good idea, and that's what my recent numbers show. I was riding the Liverpool fade and then they found some form again and I was left with West Ham to win or draw in last week's article. Fading a team like Liverpool is like playing the stock market: you keep riding it while it works but once they got that win against Tottenham, it was time to jump off. Similar to last week, there are a slew of midweek matches before the weekend, but I'll try my best to steer clear of any bear markets.
Before I look at the weekend there are a couple things to monitor Wednesday and Thursday. Burnley play worse against possession-based teams, which is why they struggled against Chelsea and managed one shot on target in the loss against Man City earlier in the season. This weekend is highlighted by a lot of even matches, with the Liverpool and Manchester City battle overshadowing the rest.
That won't stop me from betting Brighton and Burnley in a matchup no one is excited for. I suggested Brighton and Tottenham to draw last week, but the injury to Harry Kane took away the possibility of a stoppage-time equalizer. I'm taking a similar approach in what will be another defensive match Saturday. Brighton and Burnley played to a scoreless draw earlier in the season when they combined for four shots on target.
I think Brighton have the edge, but I'm not comfortable backing them. You can get decent odds on both teams not to score at There have been just four goals scored in total in Brighton's last four matches, while at least one team hasn't scored in five of Burnley's last six. If you think it finishes to either side or another scoreless draw, under 1. If you want to secure an early winner, a goal won't be scored in both halves is When it's at the break, the bet would already be a winner.
Betting on even teams is never easy and that's where I'm between Aston Villa and Arsenal. I like Villa after they won the previous meeting , but Arsenal are playing well when they aren't down a man or two and there isn't much in the odds. Reading back the last paragraph, it seems like a terrible idea to put money on Newcastle rather than Aston Villa, but this is more of a play against Southampton.
I originally had win or draw at , but those odds jumped to after the Saints were demolished Tuesday. Southampton aren't the same team and could be playing with more youth team players in central midfield and at center-back. Instead of looking at sides, there are a couple openings to bet on goals.
A few weeks ago, both West Ham and Fulham were playing well in the back, but fatigue has possibly been an issue because neither team rotates much.
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