Implied by this definition is the fact that the probability of an event is given by the ratio of favourable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes. In statistics, odds are an expression of relative probabilities, generally quoted as the odds in favor.
The odds in favor of an event or a proposition is the ratio of the probability that the event will happen to the probability that the event will not happen. Mathematically, this is a Bernoulli trial , as it has exactly two outcomes. In case of a finite sample space of equally likely outcomes , this is the ratio of the number of outcomes where the event occurs to the number of outcomes where the event does not occur; these can be represented as W and L for Wins and Losses or S and F for Success and Failure.
For example, the odds that a randomly chosen day of the week is a weekend are two to five , as days of the week form a sample space of seven outcomes, and the event occurs for two of the outcomes Saturday and Sunday , and not for the other five. For example, the odds against a random day of the week being a weekend are Odds and probability can be expressed in prose via the prepositions to and in: "odds of so many to so many on or against [some event]" refers to odds — the ratio of numbers of equally likely outcomes in favor and against or vice versa ; "chances of so many [outcomes], in so many [outcomes]" refers to probability — the number of equally like outcomes in favour relative to the number for and against combined.
For example, "odds of a weekend are 2 to 5", while "chances of a weekend are 2 in 7". In casual use, the words odds and chances or chance are often used interchangeably to vaguely indicate some measure of odds or probability, though the intended meaning can be deduced by noting whether the preposition between the two numbers is to or in. Odds can be expressed as a ratio of two numbers, in which case it is not unique — scaling both terms by the same factor does not change the proportions: odds and odds are the same even odds.
Odds can also be expressed as a number, by dividing the terms in the ratio — in this case it is unique different fractions can represent the same rational number. Odds as a ratio, odds as a number, and probability also a number are related by simple formulas, and similarly odds in favor and odds against, and probability of success and probability of failure have simple relations.
Analogously, given odds as a ratio, the probability of success or failure can be computed by dividing, and the probability of success and probability of failure sum to unity one , as they are the only possible outcomes. In case of a finite number of equally likely outcomes, this can be interpreted as the number of outcomes where the event occurs divided by the total number of events:.
This is a minor difference if the probability is small close to zero, or "long odds" , but is a major difference if the probability is large close to one. These transforms have certain special geometric properties: the conversions between odds for and odds against resp.
They are thus specified by three points sharply 3-transitive. Swapping odds for and odds against swaps 0 and infinity, fixing 1, while swapping probability of success with probability of failure swaps 0 and 1, fixing. Converting odds to probability fixes 0, sends infinity to 1, and sends 1 to. In probability theory and statistics, odds and similar ratios may be more natural or more convenient than probabilities. In some cases the log-odds are used, which is the logit of the probability.
Most simply, odds are frequently multiplied or divided, and log converts multiplication to addition and division to subtractions. This is particularly important in the logistic model , in which the log-odds of the target variable are a linear combination of the observed variables. Similar ratios are used elsewhere in statistics; of central importance is the likelihood ratio in likelihoodist statistics , which is used in Bayesian statistics as the Bayes factor.
Odds are particularly useful in problems of sequential decision making, as for instance in problems of how to stop online on a last specific event which is solved by the odds algorithm. The odds are a ratio of probabilities; an odds ratio is a ratio of odds, that is, a ratio of ratios of probabilities. Odds-ratios are often used in analysis of clinical trials.
Answer: The odds in favour of a blue marble are One can equivalently say, that the odds are against. There are 2 out of 15 chances in favour of blue, 13 out of 15 against blue. That value may be regarded as the relative probability the event will happen, expressed as a fraction if it is less than 1 , or a multiple if it is equal to or greater than one of the likelihood that the event will not happen.
In the first example at top, saying the odds of a Sunday are "one to six" or, less commonly, "one-sixth" means the probability of picking a Sunday randomly is one-sixth the probability of not picking a Sunday. While the mathematical probability of an event has a value in the range from zero to one, "the odds" in favor of that same event lie between zero and infinity. It is 6 times as likely that a random day is not a Sunday. The use of odds in gambling facilitates betting on events where the relative probabilities of outcomes varied.
For example, on a coin toss or a match race between two evenly matched horses, it is reasonable for two people to wager level stakes. However, in more variable situations, such as a multi-runner horse race or a football match between two unequally matched sides, betting "at odds" provides a perspective on the relative likelihoods of the possible outcomes.
In the modern era, most fixed odds betting takes place between a betting organisation, such as a bookmaker , and an individual, rather than between individuals. Different traditions have grown up in how to express odds to customers, older eras came with betting odds between people, today which is illegal in most countries, it was referred as "odding", an underground slang word with origins based in the Bronx.
Favoured by bookmakers in the United Kingdom and Ireland , and also common in horse racing , fractional odds quote the net total that will be paid out to the bettor, should he or she win, relative to the stake.
However, not all fractional odds are traditionally read using the lowest common denominator. Fractional odds are also known as British odds, UK odds,  or, in that country, traditional odds. Odds with a denominator of 1 are often presented in listings as the numerator only. A variation of fractional odds is known as Hong Kong odds. Fractional and Hong Kong odds are actually exchangeable. The only difference is that the UK odds are presented as a fractional notation e. Both exhibit the net return.
The European odds also represent the potential winnings net returns , but in addition they factor in the stake e. Favoured in continental Europe , Australia , New Zealand , Canada , and Singapore , decimal odds quote the ratio of the payout amount, including the original stake, to the stake itself. Therefore, the decimal odds of an outcome are equivalent to the decimal value of the fractional odds plus one. This is considered to be ideal for parlay betting, because the odds to be paid out are simply the product of the odds for each outcome wagered on.
When looking at decimal odds in betting terms, the underdog has the higher of the two decimals, while the favorite has the lower of the two. Decimal odds are favoured by betting exchanges because they are the easiest to work with for trading, as they reflect the inverse of the probability of an outcome.
Decimal odds are also known as European odds , digital odds or continental odds. Moneyline odds are favoured by American bookmakers. The figure quoted is either positive or negative. Moneyline odds are often referred to as American odds. A "moneyline" wager refers to odds on the straight-up outcome of a game with no consideration to a point spread. In most cases, the favorite will have negative moneyline odds less payoff for a safer bet and the underdog will have positive moneyline odds more payoff for a risky bet.
However, if the teams are evenly matched, both teams can have a negative line at the same time e. This is a bet on the total number of points scored by both teams. Suppose team A is playing team B and the total is set at If the final score is team A 24, team B 17, the total is 41 and bettors who took the under will win.
If the final score is team A 30, team B 31, the total is 61 and bettors who took the over will win. The total is popular because it allows gamblers to bet on their overall perception of the game e. Example: In a football match the bookmaker believes that 12 or 13 corners will occur, thus the spread is set at 12— In North American sports betting many of these wagers would be classified as over-under or, more commonly today, total bets rather than spread bets.
However, these are for one side or another of a total only, and do not increase the amount won or lost as the actual moves away from the bookmaker's prediction. Many Nevada sports books allow these bets in parlays , just like team point spread bets. This makes it possible to bet, for instance, team A and the over , and be paid if both. Such parlays usually pay off at odds of with no commission charge, just as a standard two-team parlay would.
The mathematical analysis of spreads and spread betting is a large and growing subject. For example, sports that have simple 1-point scoring systems e. By far the largest part of the official market in the UK concerns financial instruments; the leading spread-betting companies make most of their revenues from financial markets, their sports operations being much less significant. Financial spread betting in the United Kingdom closely resembles the futures and options markets, the major differences being.
Financial spread betting is a way to speculate on financial markets in the same way as trading a number of derivatives. In particular, the financial derivative Contract for difference CFD mirrors the spread bet in many ways. In fact, a number of financial derivative trading companies offer both financial spread bets and CFDs in parallel using the same trading platform. Unlike fixed-odds betting, the amount won or lost can be unlimited as there is no single stake to limit any loss.
However, it is usually possible to negotiate limits with the bookmaker:. Spread betting has moved outside the ambit of sport and financial markets that is, those dealing solely with share, bonds and derivatives , to cover a wide range of markets, such as house prices. Additionally, by avoiding the favourite-longshot bias , where the expected returns on bets placed at shorter odds exceed that of bets placed at the longer odds, and not betting with one's favorite team, but rather with the team that has been shown to be better when playing in a specific weather condition and time of day, the possibility of arriving at a positive outcome is increased.
In the UK and some other European countries the profit from spread betting is free from tax. The tax authorities of these countries designate financial spread betting as gambling and not investing, meaning it is free from capital gains tax and stamp duty , despite the fact that it is regulated as a financial product by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK.
Most traders are also not liable for income tax unless they rely solely on their profits from financial spread betting to support themselves. The popularity of financial spread betting in the UK and some other European countries, compared to trading other speculative financial instruments such as CFDs and futures is partly due to this tax advantage. However, this also means any losses cannot be offset against future earnings for tax calculations.
Conversely, in most other countries financial spread betting income is considered taxable. For example, the Australian Tax Office issued a decision in March saying "Yes, the gains from financial spread betting are assessable income under section or section of the ITAA ". This has resulted in a much lower interest in financial spread betting in those countries. Suppose Lloyds Bank is trading on the market at p bid, and p offer. A spread-betting company is also offering p.
We use cash bets with no definite expiry , or "rolling daily bets" as they are referred to by the spread betting companies. We use the offer price since I am "buying" the share betting on its increase. If a bet goes overnight, the bettor is charged a financing cost or receives it, if the bettor is shorting the stock.
On top of this, the bettor needs an amount as collateral in the spread-betting account to cover potential losses. The punter usually receives all dividends and other corporate adjustments in the financing charge each night. For example, suppose Lloyds Bank goes ex-dividend with dividend of The bettor receives that amount.
The exact amount received varies depending on the rules and policies of the spread betting company, and the taxes that are normally charged in the home tax country of the shares. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. The Times. Sep 20, Archived from the original on July 19, Australian Government ATO.
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The wager becomes "Will the favorite win by more than the point spread? This allows a bookmaker to act as a market maker by accepting wagers on both sides of the spread. The bookmaker charges a commission , or vigorish , and acts as the counterparty for each participant. As long as the total amount wagered on each side is roughly equal, the bookmaker is unconcerned with the actual outcome; profits instead come from the commissions.
To profit, the bookmaker must pay one side or both sides less than this notional amount. In practice, spreads may be perceived as slightly favoring one side, and bookmakers often revise their odds to manage their event risk. One important assumption is that to be credited with a win, either team only needs to win by the minimum of the rules of the game, without regard to the margin of victory.
This implies that teams in a winning position will not necessarily try to extend their margin—and more importantly, each team is only playing to win rather than to beat the point spread. This assumption does not necessarily hold in all situations.
For example, at the end of a season, the total points scored by a team can affect future events such as playoff seeding and positioning for the amateur draft, and teams may "run up" the score in such situations. In virtually all sports, players and other on-field contributors are forbidden from being involved in sports betting and thus have no incentive to consider the point spread during play; any attempt to manipulate the outcome of a game for gambling purposes would be considered match fixing , and the penalty is typically a lifetime banishment from the sport; such is the lack of tolerance for manipulating the result of a sporting event for such purposes.
Spread betting was invented by Charles K. McNeil , a mathematics teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the s. An example:. Spreads are frequently, though not always, specified in half-point fractions to eliminate the possibility of a tie, known as a push. In the event of a push, the game is considered no action , and no money is won or lost.
However, this is not a desirable outcome for the sports book, as they are forced to refund every bet, and although both the book and its bettors will be even, if the cost of overhead is taken into account, the book has actually lost money by taking bets on the event. Sports books are generally permitted to state "ties win" or "ties lose" to avoid the necessity of refunding every bet. Betting on sporting events has long been the most popular form of spread betting.
Whilst most bets the casino offers to players have a built in house edge, betting on the spread offers an opportunity for the astute gambler. When a casino accepts a spread bet, it gives the player the odds of 10 to 11, or That means that for every 11 dollars the player wagers, the player will win 10, slightly lower than an even money bet.
If team A is playing team B, the casino is not concerned with who wins the game; they are only concerned with taking an equal amount of money of both sides. This is the house edge. The goal of the casino is to set a line that encourages an equal amount of action on both sides, thereby guaranteeing a profit. This also explains how money can be made by the astute gambler. If casinos set lines to encourage an equal amount of money on both sides, it sets them based on the public perception of the team, not necessarily the real strength of the teams.
Many things can affect public perception, which moves the line away from what the real line should be. This gap between the Vegas line, the real line, and differences between other sports books betting lines and spreads is where value can be found. A teaser is a bet that alters the spread in the gambler's favor by a predetermined margin — in American football the teaser margin is often six points.
For example, if the line is 3. In return for the additional points, the payout if the gambler wins is less than even money , or the gambler must wager on more than one event and both events must win. In this way it is very similar to a parlay. At some establishments, the "reverse teaser" also exists, which alters the spread against the gambler, who gets paid at more than evens if the bet wins.
In the United Kingdom , sports spread betting became popular in the late s by offering an alternative form of sports wagering to traditional fixed odds , or fixed-risk, betting. With fixed odds betting , a gambler places a fixed-risk stake on stated fractional or decimal odds on the outcome of a sporting event that would give a known return for that outcome occurring or a known loss if that outcome doesn't occur the initial stake.
The spread on offer will refer to the betting firm's prediction on the range of a final outcome for a particular occurrence in a sports event, e. The more right the gambler is then the more they will win, but the more wrong they are then the more they can lose. The level of the gambler's profit or loss will be determined by the stake size selected for the bet, multiplied by the number of unit points above or below the gambler's bet level.
This reflects the fundamental difference between sports spread betting and fixed odds sports betting in that both the level of winnings and level of losses are not fixed and can end up being many multiples of the original stake size selected. For example, in a cricket match a sports spread betting firm may list the spread of a team's predicted runs at — If the gambler elects to buy at and the team scores runs in total, the gambler will have won 50 unit points multiplied by their initial stake.
But if the team only scores runs then the gambler will have lost 50 unit points multiplied by their initial stake. It is important to note the difference between spreads in sports wagering in the U. In the U. In the UK betting above or below the spread does not have a known final profit or loss, with these figures determined by the number of unit points the level of the final outcome ends up being either above or below the spread, multiplied by the stake chosen by the gambler.
For UK spread betting firms, any final outcome that finishes in the middle of the spread will result in profits from both sides of the book as both buyers and sellers will have ended up making unit point losses. So in the example above, if the cricket team ended up scoring runs both buyers at and sellers at would have ended up with losses of five unit points multiplied by their stake. This is a bet on the total number of points scored by both teams.
Suppose team A is playing team B and the total is set at If the final score is team A 24, team B 17, the total is 41 and bettors who took the under will win. If the final score is team A 30, team B 31, the total is 61 and bettors who took the over will win. The total is popular because it allows gamblers to bet on their overall perception of the game e.
Example: In a football match the bookmaker believes that 12 or 13 corners will occur, thus the spread is set at 12— In North American sports betting many of these wagers would be classified as over-under or, more commonly today, total bets rather than spread bets. Of course, bettors will not necessarily risk the same amount of money on both outcomes every time. In such circumstances, there are two ways a sportsbook can mitigate the risk.
In actual scenarios, even adjustments of i. Though this bet is most commonly made with the combined score of the two teams, many other statistics can be used, including:. A variant of overunder betting, known as Under Over, is a dice game played at various festivals. The object of the game is to predict whether the dice will roll to a total of under 7, over 7, or at 7. The game is typically played with 2 dice.
For instance if one bets one dollar on under and the dealer rolls under, they gain a dollar as well as get their dollar back. If the dealer rolls a seven and one bets on it, they make four dollars. Once all the bets have been placed the attendant closes the betting board with a screen and then puts the dice through the chute. Players then get paid accordingly. One variation of Under Over involves foam dice, two of which are thrown in the middle of the players; in another variation, two balls are thrown into a giant wheel consisting of twelve spaces of numbers ranging from 1—6.
No wire fence is used to block the bets in that case. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Type of wager at a sportsbook. For other uses, see Over—under disambiguation. Secrets of Professional Sports Betting.
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The amount you lay or take for each game may vary. The money line that is read at the time of your wager is the money line you keep regardless of any line movement. What is a Total? The total for the game is If the combined score is equal to 45, the game is considered 'No Action' and the money is re-deposited to the player's account.
If the combined score is less than 45, the wager is lost. What is a Parlay? This is a bet of 2 or more teams selections in no particular order. All teams wagered on in a parlay must win. If there is a tie or 'No Action' among the selections made, the parlay reverts down to the next lowest number for payoff.
In the case of a 2-team parlay, it will revert down to a straight wager. If all these games win, the player wins at odds. If 4 of the games win and 1 of the games is considered 'No Action', the player wins at odds. If 1 of the games loses, the entire parlay loses. What is a Teaser? A Teaser is a selection of two or more teams in one wager in which the point spread is adjusted in your favor. The number of teams selected and the number of points selected determine the payout odds.
Ties on a three or more team teaser shall revert to the next lowest betting bracket Example: A tie on a three team becomes a two team teaser. Sweetheart Teasers: A sweetheart teaser combines either three or four football or basketball wagers. The number of points that you adjust the point spreads or totals by depends on the sport and the number of teams in the teaser, as follows:. If one of the wagers results in a tie, the whole teaser will be considered a loss.
If one of the picks is graded "No Action" e. Like a regular teaser, a loss in your sweetheart will make the entire wager a loss regardless of the outcome of the other selections. What is a Future Wager and Proposition Wager? Future wagers are based on the outcome of events that happen each year.