Sports betting theories

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This betting strategy is typically applied to basketball and hockey because they both employ a similar playoff format.

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For those who are not aware, the theory of probability is the study of random events, using mathematical formula. However, patterns do begin to emerge. How is this possible? In the case of a coin toss, there are factors that may sway the coin, pushing it more towards landing on heads or tails. The coin has many imperfections, such as grooves, and even the design of the coin itself, which shape its journey through the air.

These imperfections, when interacting with air, can indeed result in the coin more commonly landing on one side, as apposed to the other. Even how the coin is flipped may be an influencing actor, or how humid the temperature is. Yes, the influence will be so small that a person flipping the coin a dozen times will hardly notice. But, study the coin toss over hundreds of hours, and a pattern begins to emerge.

If using this data, analysing it, and applying it, the theory of probability makes guessing heads or tales somewhat easier. Making a quick guess on one team, or the other, is all good and well. Its fun, entertaining, and a good way to perhaps make a few extra dollars. The myriad applications for logarithmic information measures tell us precisely how to take the best guess in the face of partial information.

It is no surprise, therefore, that information theory has applications to games of chance. Kelly betting or proportional betting is an application of information theory to investing and gambling. Its discoverer was John Larry Kelly, Jr. Part of Kelly's insight was to have the gambler maximize the expectation of the logarithm of his capital, rather than the expected profit from each bet.

This is important, since in the latter case, one would be led to gamble all he had when presented with a favorable bet, and if he lost, would have no capital with which to place subsequent bets. Kelly realized that it was the logarithm of the gambler's capital which is additive in sequential bets, and "to which the law of large numbers applies.

A bit is the amount of entropy in a bettable event with two possible outcomes and even odds. Obviously we could double our money if we knew beforehand for certain what the outcome of that event would be. Kelly's insight was that no matter how complicated the betting scenario is, we can use an optimum betting strategy, called the Kelly criterion , to make our money grow exponentially with whatever side information we are able to obtain.

The value of this "illicit" side information is measured as mutual information relative to the outcome of the betable event:. This is the average Kullback—Leibler divergence , or information gain, of the a posteriori probability distribution of X given the value of Y relative to the a priori distribution, or stated odds, on X. Notice that the expectation is taken over Y rather than X : we need to evaluate how accurate, in the long term, our side information Y is before we start betting real money on X.

This is a straightforward application of Bayesian inference. Note that the side information Y might affect not just our knowledge of the event X but also the event itself. For example, Y might be a horse that had too many oats or not enough water. The same mathematics applies in this case, because from the bookmaker's point of view, the occasional race fixing is already taken into account when he makes his odds.

The nature of side information is extremely finicky. We have already seen that it can affect the actual event as well as our knowledge of the outcome. Suppose we have an informer, who tells us that a certain horse is going to win. We certainly do not want to bet all our money on that horse just upon a rumor: that informer may be betting on another horse, and may be spreading rumors just so he can get better odds himself.

Instead, as we have indicated, we need to evaluate our side information in the long term to see how it correlates with the outcomes of the races. This way we can determine exactly how reliable our informer is, and place our bets precisely to maximize the expected logarithm of our capital according to the Kelly criterion. Even if our informer is lying to us, we can still profit from his lies if we can find some reverse correlation between his tips and the actual race results.

Doubling rate in gambling on a horse race is [3]. This quantity is maximized by proportional Kelly gambling:. An important but simple relation exists between the amount of side information a gambler obtains and the expected exponential growth of his capital Kelly :. This equation applies in the absence of any transaction costs or minimum bets. When these constraints apply as they invariably do in real life , another important gambling concept comes into play: the gambler or unscrupulous investor must face a certain probability of ultimate ruin, which is known as the gambler's ruin scenario.

Note that even food, clothing, and shelter can be considered fixed transaction costs and thus contribute to the gambler's probability of ultimate ruin. This equation was the first application of Shannon's theory of information outside its prevailing paradigm of data communications Pierce. Its two primary strengths are that surprisals: i reduce minuscule probabilities to numbers of manageable size, and ii add whenever probabilities multiply.

For example, one might say that "the number of states equals two to the number of bits" i. Here the quantity that's measured in bits is the logarithmic information measure mentioned above.

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The first thing that all of us were taught in math lessons was the meanings of numbers and basic mathematical operations addition, subtraction, multiplication, division. This helps the player to calculate the possible winnings, understand whether his bank has increased or decreased, and also calculate the probability of a particular outcome. Then the school teacher introduced us to more complex concepts like percentages, fractions, and decimals. The most important basis of betting is the theory of probability.

Many gamblers underestimate its importance, believing that everything happens by chance. But the laws of mathematics exist independently of specific events and are the basis of betting. It is thanks to the theory of probability, studied in school, that the player determines what are the chances that this or that event will happen, and decides whether to bet on it or not.

Everyone who went to school probably remembers the example of the coin. But what happens if you flip it 10 times? The results will be less straightforward. It is also possible that in all ten experiments tails will fall out. Such an uneven distribution of events is called dispersion. It can deceive the player and mislead him. Even an experienced and successful bettor can be in the red because of the dispersion, and a beginner can catch a series of victories and think he is a guru in betting.

That is why those who do not know the basics of probability theory can not succeed in sports betting and make big profits. Remember how we were taught to solve examples, introduced to equations and inequalities? And that is how professional gamblers determine the value of a bet. Also, at school, we were taught to analyze, compare, find the right information and discard the unnecessary information. All this in sports betting helps in studying team statistics and making match predictions.

Of course, there are still many nuances in betting and the work of betting companies. But it would be impossible to understand them without simple school knowledge. Have a news tip? Let us know! Skip to content What can you learn about sports betting in the classroom? But, study the coin toss over hundreds of hours, and a pattern begins to emerge. If using this data, analysing it, and applying it, the theory of probability makes guessing heads or tales somewhat easier.

Making a quick guess on one team, or the other, is all good and well. Its fun, entertaining, and a good way to perhaps make a few extra dollars. The short answer is; it would, to a degree. The long answer is; an unexpected injury could render much of the analysis meaningless, in one fell swoop.

Ultimately, taking into account influencing factors in a sports game is an excellent idea, and recommended to bet makers. Getting more predictions correct than incorrect is all a person can hope for, and something to strive towards. Good luck to all the bet makers out there. Influencing Factors on The Theory of Probability In the case of a coin toss, there are factors that may sway the coin, pushing it more towards landing on heads or tails.

The Theory of Probability In Sports Making a quick guess on one team, or the other, is all good and well. Understanding Live Betting Law in Australia.